This Week in Politics
Canadian Federal Election
Following a sweeping victory to the helm of the Liberal Party Prime Minister Mark Carney called for a snap election on 28 April, mere months from when the election cycle would officially end. His recent ascent has been mirrored by a surge for the Liberals in polling, following years of waning support. The opposition Conservatives, headed by Pierre Polievre, no longer lead in every poll, in stark contrast with mere weeks ago when the party enjoyed a double-digit lead. Mr Poilievre faces a steeper hill with Mr Carney than with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in his aspiration of replacing the newcomer prime minister in April.
The snap election will serve as a testimony to Mr Carney's ability to campaign as a politically untested option. He campaigned on being an outsider with strong financial credentials, yet could face issues in conveying the Liberals' message without the political knowledge needed to run a national campaign. The ability to adapt will be central to Mr Carney's campaign. Yet, the Liberal Party has a clear advantage, with the tightening of polling the party is near, perhaps even at, a point in which it could win. Because of the constituency system and an uneven spread of support, concentrating Conservatives in Alberta and Saskatchewan, the Liberals can win with fewer votes than Mr Poilievre. In Both 2021 and 2019, the Conservative Party secured more votes than the Liberals, yet failed to win in the constituencies that mattered in the balance of power.
Moreover, the left-wing New Democratic Party could serve as a coalition partner for Mr Carney, as it had done throughout Mr Trudeau's tenure. However, the New Democrats are facing a decline, to the benefit of Mr Carney, and face making substantial losses on Election Day, perhaps leaving the party unwilling to join another coalition. The Bloc Québécois also face losses toward the Liberals, which might mean an outright majority for Mr Carney. The resurrection of Liberal support has revitalised a party thought doomed. Whether this newfound energy can be translated into power on Election Day will depend on its ability to continue resonating with voters. Historically the Liberals do not even need to do better than the Conservatives, yet Mr Carney might, which could reshape the Canadian political climate back in favour of the Liberals.
Pete Buttigieg will not Run in Michigan
Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, who skyrocketed to fame in the 2020 Democratic Party primary, has ruled out running for both Governor or Senator of Michigan. Moreover, stating he did not intend to seek any office in 2026, leaving the 2028 election year-wide open. Mr Buttigieg was viewed as a potential candidate for either office in the swing state. His exit, rather lack of entrance, allows other candidates to eye for the influential posts. Democrats ability to attract old voters in the entire Rust Belt Blue Wall states will be defining for the 2026 mid-term elections.
Turkish Opposition Leader Arrested
Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu, a leading figure of the opposition centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP), has been arrested based on alleged charges of corruption and aiding a terrorist group. Markets responded negatively to the arrest. Mr Imamoglu, himself a presidential hopeful, has long been viewed as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's most prominent opponent. The arrest and annulment of his university degree place his candidacy in jeopardy, with the CHP primary for the 2028 election scheduled for 23 March 2025. Mr Imamoglu's election victory in the municipal election in Istanbul last year surprised President Erdogan and his political party. The election win showcased Mr Imamoglu's broad appeal, which has managed to stretch into traditionally more conservative voters. He posed a real threat to Mr Erdogan, whether he still does is questionable.
