This Week in Politics
German Election of Change
Following the collapse of the Traffic Light Coalition Germany readied for a snap election. Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the centre-left SPD faced major unpopularity, the Greens a decline, and the liberal FDP reckoned with polling below the 5% hurdle. During the election cycle the far-right AfD had surged, the centre-right CDU had claimed, and the newcomer leftist BSW had enjoyed polling in the high single digits, although it faced a steep drop in late 2024.
By Election Day polling was reaffirmed. The centre-right CDU headed by Friedrich Merz secured 28.5% of the electorate, clearly becoming the largest party in the Bundestag. Mr Merz is therefore best positioned to become the next chancellor, he won on a platform of reform and change. Simultaneously, the far-right AfD surged, nearly doubling its seat share, becoming the second-largest party with 20.8% of the vote. Moreover, the left-wing Die Linke returned to its historical levels of support following the debacle result of 2021, in which it failed to secure the 5% threshold, instead relying on strong support in individual constituencies. Die Linke mustered 8.8%, thereby gaining 25 seats. These are the parties, the AfD and Die Linke, furthest from the political centre in Germany and they will disrupt the traditional power brokerage between parties. Firstly, Mr Merz has declared he will not govern with the AfD, and Die Linke is naturally distant, leaving him with the SPD and Greens, in which only the SPD has enough seats to together with the CDU garner a majority. Secondly, the size of the AfD allows the party to be louder and take more space, meaning it could better direct national attention.
The result for the governing SPD was horrendous, by far the worst in the party's post-war history, showcasing their utter lack of support after 4 years at the helm of German politics. However, being the main contender to become the CDU governing partner the SPD could nonetheless remain influential in the coming election cycle. Yet, ultimately the party faces a challenge in rebuilding bridges with voters lost to the CDU, AfD, and leftists. Simultaneously, the Greens secured their second-best result ever, in seat share, despite noticeable losses. While the result is a disappointment, the party has gained relevancy with the ability to sway. Although the Greens face a challenge in attracting its former voters from the Left, which it might be able to do outside government as an opposition party. Moreover, the losses toward the CDU might reflect a protest vote toward the incumbent government, rather than an opinion shift toward the right. However, Germany is certainly different from what it was 4 years ago, and whether both the Greens and the SPD can find their new place will be their ultimate test.
For the second time during the post-war period, the FDP has failed to gain representation in parliament, with a mere 4.3% the party failed to gain the needed 5%. The shift leaves the party with an uncertain future. Whether a recalibration could attract the voters needed to regain seats will completely depend on whether the party can remain relevant. Being outside the Bundestag means losing a primary channel toward the voters. Its seats in the European Parliament and state parliaments will become crucial in their rebuilding effort. Moreover, the BSW just barely missed the hurdle with 4.97% some 13,435 votes away from the threshold. The party has decided to challenge the result in the courts. However, if the result does not change the newcomer party's ability to remain relevant is questionable. While the FDP has a long history the BSW is barely a year old. However, the group would still maintain a presence in state parliaments and the European Parliament, which it could use to channel its message to the electorate.
Canadian Liberal's Surge
Following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's declared resignation with the ensuing leadership election, the Liberal Party has surged in polling. The substantial lead of 20% of the Conservative Party headed by Pierre Poilievre has been cut in some polling to a Liberal lead, within the span of less than a month. A recent Ipsos poll placed the Liberals 2% ahead of their Conservative competitors. Although, a majority of polls still give the Conservatives a clear lead. Yet, this is the first major polling in nearly 2 years in which the Liberals have come out on top, marking a staunch shift from the trend of decline. Whether the party can continue or hold onto this surge when the leadership election is over will define the next general election result.
Hong Kong's Democratic Party
The longstanding Democratic Party of Hong Kong is taking steps to dissolve. The 31-year-old party was once the city's largest opposition group, yet has struggled to survive following the dissent on protesters in 2019. Beijing and Hong Kong have called the measures necessary for national security reasons. Moreover, the financial centre's system of representationwas changed in 2021 to only include individuals regarded as loyal to Beijing. The overhaul practically meant that the Democratic Party no longer could take part in elections.
"Developing democracy in Hong Kong is always difficult, and it's especially difficult in the past few years," Party chairman Lo Kin-hei said.
Asked whether the decision was made under political pressure the chairman failed to respond. The party's official dissolution will require a 75% vote share at an upcoming general meeting, although whether the party can continue seeing its leadership does not believe so is deeply questionable.
"Therefore I am not surprised at all that they have been losing supporters in recent years... the Democratic Party has already reached a dead end," Hong Kong government adviser Regina Ip stated.
