This Week in Politics
German Election Looms
Europe faces an election in its largest economy and second largest population, and consequentially a leading member of the European Union. With the tumultuous collapse of the Traffic Light Coalition, following the FDP ejection, Germany headed toward a snap election. On the one hand, the country faces upholding the unpopular incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz, backed by his centre-left SPD and the Greens. Otherwise, supporting a CDU/CSU chancellorship after a 4-year intermittent. Nonetheless, the far-right AfD is set for its best showing ever, while the distinct left-wing BSW could win seats in the Bundestag through direct election. Moreover, the FDP could lose its representation, failing to secure the 5% threshold. Lastly, the left-wing Die Linke has experienced a polling surge, after a longstanding decline, ahead of Election Day.
The Scholz government is unpopular, which is a contributing factor to the rise of the CDU/CSU following the 2021 federal election defeat. Friedrich Merz leads the centre-right party. In the European Parliament election the group secured the most votes at 30%, Mr Merz hopes to repeat the victory in the federal election. Polling places his CDU/CSU at a strong 30%, significantly above the 24% won in 2021. Currently, Mr Merz is viewed as the frontrunner to replace Chancellor Scholz, although it remains unclear what constellation might appear following Election Day. He has ruled out working with the far-right AfD. This leaves potential coalition partners in the SPD, Greens, or the FDP, if the party manages the 5% hurdle, all members of the Traffic Light Coalition.
The AfD is set for a historic best, polling above their EU-election result of 16% with an impressive 20% compared with 12.6% in 2021. However, considering no mainstream party wants to form a coalition with the party it is unlikely to gain real influence in the Bundestag. Yet, a strong showing could still shape government policy as the AfD would have a louder, more prominent voice in parliament.
Both the SPD and the Greens are facing losses, especially the former. At 25.7% in 2021, the SPD became the largest party in parliament, currently, it polls in third with about 15% of the electorate. The fall reflects a widespread disapproving electorate. Comparatively, the Greens are polling at 13.1%, 1.6% below their 2021 historic high. Such a result would still be the second best in the party's history, but still a disappointment considering polling in the low 20s this election cycle.
Die Linke has experienced a surge ahead of Election Day, during all of January and the vast majority of the election cyclethe party has polled below the 5% threshold. Yet, after its Bundestag Group Leader went viral for criticising the CDU/CSU for having been supported by the AfD in a migration bill the party has surged to 7%. The result would be a strong return for the party marked by a decline since the 2017 federal election.
Lastly, both the BSW and FDP are polling beneath the hurdle, meaning they could fail to win seats. While the disappearance of newcomer BSW would be a shift it is hardly comparable to the FDP which has been a consistent governing coalition partner and has been in the Bundestag since the post-war period, sparing the 2013 election. Its low numbers suggest a deeply unpopular decision to enter the Traffic Light Coalition.
No matter the winner on Election Day, Germany seems set for change. The rise of the AfD marks an antipathy toward the established governing parties, while the surge of Die Linke through the use of social media mirrors the AfD's successful strategy. Whether the BSW or FDP will even exist in the next Bundestag is up for interpretation and both the SPD and Greens face losses. Whether the expected winner, Mr Merz, can bring together a coalition Germans approve of will be instrumental for the future.
