This Week in Politics
Japanese Election
After over a decade of rule and near uninterrupted power since 1958 the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP) has lost its majority. In a snap-election called by Shigeru Ishiba, the relatively new leader of the LDP and prime Minister of Japan, aimed at securing a mandate from the people the LDP instead finds itself in limbo as it searches for viable paths forward. Losing 68 seats the LDP now totals 191 members in the country's House of Representatives. To form a governing majority 233 seats are required, together with Komeito, formerly a junior coalition partner of the LDP, the LDP does not reach a majority. It must search for more coalition partners, including the Democratic Party For the People (DPP) which is not dissimilar from the LDP ideologically or Ishin although the party officials have been skeptical of such prospects. Otherwise, the LDP could aim to rule through a minority government requiring case-by-case support. However, any LDP-led government will face steeper challenges in ruling then before. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) headed by former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda experienced strong gains, increasing from 96 seats priorly to 148. Yet a CDP government would likely entail a fragmented coalition, being difficult to co-ordinate.
Results for major parties:
LDP 191 (-68), CDP 148 (+52), Ishin 38 (-3), DPP 28 (+17) and Komeito 24 (-8)
Lithuanian Election
In a starch shift from 2020, the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP) has become the largest party. Securing some52 seats out of 141 in the Seimas (parliament), 71 needed a majority, with roughly 19% of the vote share. The result upends 4-years of governance by the Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrat government speared by conservative Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė. The LSDP is expected to form a coalition with the smaller centre-left parties the Democratic Union and the Union of Peasants and Greens, with 14 and 8 seats. No major refocus within foreign policy is expected.
Sprint for the White House
With Election Day nearing the presidential nominees are pitting their final messages to the electorate. Former President Trump attacked his opponent and rallied his supporters with speakers such as billionaire Elon Mush and TV presenter Tucker Carlson. He stated the Democratic nominee had “obliterated” the border and “decimated the middle class.” Speaking at the Ellipse, where Trump addressed his supporters ahead of their storming of the capitol on January 6, Vice President Harris' closing argument reflected the increasingly sharp tone used by Democrats against the former president. Moreover, the Democratic nominee promised to "seek common ground" and listen to “people who disagree with me.”
He is “unstable, obsessed with revenge, consumed with grievance and out for unchecked power.” Vice President Kamala Harris describing her opponent.
“Donald Trump intends to use the United States military against American citizens who simply disagree with him - people he calls ‘the enemy from within.’ This is not a candidate for president who is thinking about how to make your life better.” Presidential nominee Harris attacking Trump and his prioritise.
Polling suggests an even election with both candidates able to pull ahead. In recent days Donald Trump has enjoyed a positive trend in polling while Democrats fear tighter polling margins than before. Critical Pennsylvania with 19 electors has the former president ahead by nearly 1% as of 31 October. While in states such as Arizona and Georgia the Republican nominee enjoys roughly a 2% lead with North Carolina not far behind. In both Michigan and Wisconsin, the Vice President is ahead. Nevada is the closest state, despite being the only swing state to never have voted for Trump.Whether polling is a reliable source is questionable, Election Day is the only poll that truly matters, yet nevertheless, Democratic strategists are worried at recent trends while Republics are rejoiceful.
“Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” Former President Trump asking a question aimed at the broader electorate.
She is "a trainwreck who has destroyed everything in her path.” Trump describing his opponent.
"No person who has caused so much destruction and death at home and abroad should ever be allowed to be the president of the United States.” Trump told supporters in Florida.
