This Week in Politics
French Upset Election
In an upset the French Rassemblement National (RN) failed to became the largest party, instead trailing Nouveau Front Populair (NFP) and Ensemble that together won a majority. In the first round RN and allies led in 297 constituencies, above the 289 needed for an outright majority in the National Assembly. The NFP led in 159, well behind Jordan Bardella's party. Whilst Ensemble plunged to an abysmal 70 and LR led in just 20 seats. Suffice to say Rassemblement National had high hopes moving toward the second round of voting, which notably illuminates smaller candidates.
However, in a coordinated effort enemies of RN, including the NFP and Ensemble, dropped out their 3rd and 4th place candidates. Those opposed to a Prime Minister Bardella hoped to united an anti-RN vote, interchanging votes between the NFP and Ensemble that together won just shy of an outright majority of the national vote share in the first round. Whether voters would respond to this was unclear, the clear differences between the left-wing NFP and centre-right Ensemble may have discourage tactical voting. Both sides had a strong distaste for each other. However, come Election Day an exit poll suggests the French did vote tactically. The NFP secured 182 seats, becoming the largest party, Ensemble was not too far behind at 168, a cataclysmicly poor result in comparison to 2022, whilst RN won a disappointing, for their ambitions, 143. LR lost seats, however, managed to recuperate from the first round winning 46 constituencies.
The final result portrays a divided France, the West of the nation alongside Paris clearly supported Ensemble and the NFP. Moreover, urban centres overwhelmingly votes for the NFP. On the other hand Rassemblement National experienced strongest support in the South and North, with the Northeast, outside Alsace-Lorraine, also strongly supporting RN. LR's support was scattered across the nation, with rural constituencies making up the bulk of support. Internationally Ensemble dominated, with only 1 district voting for another group than Ensemble, namely the NFP. In the In French territory outside Europe the left-wing prevailed, though all major parties enjoyed some level of support. Moreover, these territories, including French Guniea, Reunion and New Caledonia, had many independent parties that won, with the left-wing and centre once more coming out on top. Moving forward the NFP and Ensemble will likely work together, however, with a dynamic change in which the NFP could demand much more influence. Though Rassemblement National remaining at the heals of power will remain a fact.
Biden Back on Upward Trend
After a devastating debate in President Biden has begun to recuperate votes sin swing state polling. He's now predicted roughly the same as at the height of his support ahead of the debate, with the notable exception of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Michigan former President Trump holds a victory margin of 0.2%. However, the main issue affecting the Biden-Harris Campaign currently seems to be the bleeding of independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. that is boosting Trump significantly. Whilst Biden is back to pre-debate polling in both Arizona and Georgia Trump is still further ahead as Kennedy loses support. Though, if Biden could maintain his momentum and start winning in Michigan polling and tightening the margins in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin he could silence the shatter of him needing to resign. If the president can work well under immense time pressure is the main question.
