This Week in Politics

First Presidential Debate

President Biden and the former President went head-to-head this week in Atlanta at the first presidential debate of the campaign. Expectations for both candidates were high; Mr Biden hoped to brush off concerns about his age and Mr Trump wanted to rewrite the negative narrative around him that has formed recently. 55% excepted a stronger performance from former President Trump than President Biden, and the remaining 45% stood on the president's side. However, after the debate, a whopping 67% stated Trump had outperformed Biden, a jump of 12%, while just 33% said it was the opposite. The president faltered in creating a clear line of thought. His raspy voice, later blamed on a cold, did not help the incumbent commander-in-chief. Nor did his forgetfulness or confusion, effectively exploited by the former president, as seen in the quote:

"We finally beat Medicaid." - President Joe Biden.

"He did beat Medicaid, he beat it to death." Former President Donald Trump responding to Biden's comment.

Trump was simply sharper and clearer than the presumptive Democratic nominee. Moreover, the Republican had few similar mishaps as Biden. Serious chatter of replacing Joe Biden with a new nominee is being discussed by Democrats at nearly all levels. However, whether the president himself is contemplating dropping out is unlikely. A replacement would likely be forceable. Democrats are leaving the debate risking a reversal of their recent positive trend enjoyed in polling. However, this early in the campaign Biden HQ could still work away from the first debate performance. For example, a strong showing in the next and last debate in September could play well in Biden's favour, though could also destroy his viability, which is already suffering, if it went the same as this debate. Nonetheless, Trump should be pleased and Biden knows what he must work on.

French Election Polls

The French are heading to the ballot box on Sunday and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) is widely expected to make gains. Current polling suggests a pre-election surge in support for RN. President Emmanuel Macron's alliance, Ensemble, is weakened in comparison to the last election. The Nouveau Front Populaire is gaining momentum though would still entail bad news for Macron if they became the larger out of the 2 because they could lay claim to the prime ministership. At the same time, Les Républicains have plummeted as the party deals with very public internal turmoil, giving both the RN and Ensemble a boost in polling. The election will ultimately be decided on the 7th of July with the final round of voting, though the first round on Sunday will be telling at what the final result may be.

Troubled Negotiating in South Africa

The unprecedented Government of National Unity (GNU) in South Africa has stumbled into fighting mere weeks after agreeing to share power. When the African National Congress (ANC) lost its outright majority, for the first time since South Africa became a democracy, in May it prompted negotiations with other parties. The ANC eventually teamed up with the Democratic Alliance (DA), its traditional rival, alongside some smaller parties to form a broad coalition government. Cyril Ramaphosa, ANC leader and president before the election, re-secured his job at the expense of some political trade-offs. Namely, the deputy speaker post was handed to the DA and some of the cabinet positions are expected to be allocated to the party.

However, the ANC and DA cannot agree on a reasonable allocation of ministers; the DA is advocating for a proportional 9 out of 30 posts whilst the ANC is offering 6. Noteworthy is the ANC has other options than working with the DA, not least the EFF, though that presents a separate challenge. Simply the ANC believes the DA is overstepping, not only does the president have other options his party is also twice the size of the DA. While the DA sees themselves as indispensable and unwilling to compromise regarding their influence. Both actors wish to "win" the negotiating, however, in so doing may be losing vital time and patience. Markets did not react kindly to the news of the DA contemplating a withdrawal from the GNU, with the rand plunging against the dollar.