The Shift: Signs of a Close Election
With President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump set for a 2024 rematch we've looked at polls, past presidential election results from 1980 and onwards alongside other elections such as primaries, senatorial and house elections to predict the result.
Since last month former President Donald J. Trump has become a convicted felon, charged on 34 accounts. No former president or major presidential candidate has ever been a felon. Former court rulings have played into Mr Trump's hands, however, the seriousness of a felony charge may be enough to discourage many voters. Nation-wide polling has been overtaken by President Biden, though it's still head-to-head. However, the clear shift since last month reflects possible distaste for the Republican nominee. The incumbent president is not in an easy situation either, Mr Biden still trails the GOP in states such as Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada alongside having minor leads in the other swing states. Despite the unprecedented circumstances, the former White House resident remains a viable candidate with large-scale support.
The economy remains an important topic for voters, especially as many households struggle with inflation and prices. Gallup's Economic Confidence Index measures public faith in the economy, after months of trending upward Americansare once again falling out with the economy. After peaking, in recent years, at -20 in March the rating has now slumped to -34, the economic confidence will be a vital question in this election and the reversal of the positive confidence trend should have White House strategists scared. On the other hand, confidence has risen significantly since 2022 and time does remain to shift the trend once more.
The map below takes these factors into account - historical results, importance of issues, and more. Whilst former President Trump narrowly re-secures the White House this month it's by a smaller margin than last prediction. States like Arizona and Wisconsin are vulnerable, the prevalence of abortion in Arizona will likely play into Biden's favour as campaigning takes root and Wisconsin's marginal lead for Trump is nothing to rely on. Moreover, Pennsylvania has defected to the Biden Campaign - a major loss for Trump's bid.
The former president is set to be re-elected according to this prediction, based on current circumstances and polling. The return of states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin are contributing reasons alongside Trump's felony charges not impacting polling greatly yet, making any prediction of public reaction pure speculation. Notably, Pennsylvania has returned to the Biden camp, lessening Trump's lead and tightening the election. If the GOP lost any of the flipped states, excluding Nevada, Biden would win. The closeness of this election remains strong, however, Biden is enjoying momentum currently as he gains in national polling and strengthens his Democratic coalition and fundraising links. Whilst Trump wins this month next may tell a different story and the Republican strategy must adapt to the new environment if the lead is to be upheld. However, as it stands now Biden would lose and Trump win, and the former president still stands a real possibility of winning (as seen in this prediction).
Arizona whilst a strong proponent of questions such as abortion is set to return to Mr Trump. This is largely due to a clear advantage in terms of registered Republicans in comparison with Democrats alongside independents not viewing abortion and democracy as important as other voters. Alongside a pro-choice stance not having a connotation with Democratic support, many within the electorate find themselves strongly supporting abortion, however, less certain about the presidential race. In the coming months, Democrats are likely to try and sway voters on the issue and have a good chance at succeeding due to Trump's touting about being responsible for the overturning of Roe v. Wade. The recent state Supreme Court ruling has also placed the question higher on many voters' agenda; the clear distinctions between the candidates may make the decision obvious in Biden's favour. However, the border and the economy alongside housingremain some of the strongest issues overall and could decide the election. The Trump Campaign must cement support in the Sun Belt state if it is to win, focusing on the border, economy, and housing could rally Republicans and independents. However, Biden and Harris weighing into abortion, democracy, and Trump's felony charges could sway voters. Furthermore, the 2022 mid-terms results in the state showcased strong Democratic support, with candidates from the Senate to the governorship winning. This state is competitive and both sides stand a good chance of winning, though current polling and the importance of the issue suggest Trump holds a slight edge.
Georgia is also set to defect to Trump and largely follows the same reasoning; historical results and current polling. Trump simply holds a large lead over Mr Biden and considering Georgia is a long-time Republican turf a breakthrough for the blue may be unrealistic. Whilst Democrats have managed to secure both Senate seats and mild losses in 2022 the governorship and historic results still favour Republicans. Simply put candidates viewed as "reasonable" won in Georgia, the GOP Senate nominees were unique and so the Democrats won, and Trump is seen as more reasonable than Biden currently.
Michigan is Democratic territory; gains in the House elections of 2022, northern Senators being Democrats for a long time and a blue popular governor all contribute the the Democratic characterization of the state. Moreover, the more divided Republican primary reflects greater division within the GOP, Nikki Haley voters are a winnable target demographic for Biden whilst the uncommitted in the Democratic primary are unlikely to vote for Trump. Moreover, the tight polling in the state favour Biden, as most polling tends to unfairly favour Trump and the Republicans, especially when looking at the 2022 mid-term. Michigan's long Democratic history alongside polling is the main factor for Biden's win. However, if Trump focused on inflation, the economy alongside real bread and butter issues he stands a chance of making substantial gains, especially in suburban communities outside Detroit and in the middle of the state. Moreover, similar, however, weaker, circumstances in Pennsylvania reflect the same sentiment and opportunity for both campaigns and explain the same characterization. Lastly, a special election win in the suburbs showcases strong support for Democrats.
Nevada is usually a strong blue state, the Democrats have 3 out of 4 House seats and both Senators, however, in 2022 the GOP regained the governorship. Moreover, polling has steadily put Mr Trump ahead of Biden. Despite being the only out of this election cycle swing-states to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016 Nevada has simply been trending to the right, last election the Trump Campaign made gains in the state, roughly 2%, and this time is seemingly no different. Whilst historical results and state-wide elections have favoured Democrats in the state the shift toward Trump is prevalent, the governor election showcased how the GOP can win.
Wisconsin is more socially conservative than both Michigan and Pennsylvania, and that helps the GOP in this case. Moreover, the state is divided regarding Senate and House seats alongside the governorship, the Republican Party does have more House representatives, however, the governorship evens that out. 2022 did not see a drastic change, the GOP only gained the 3rd district which is more rural. 2022 alongside current polling slightly favours Mr Trump. However, it's important to keep in mind that this state will not be won by a large margin, its close nature as seen when compared with Michigan means Biden could win the state. Cities like Milwaukee and Madison could shift the entire state if won by large enough margins, alongside some support in suburbs and the countryside. Moving forward Democrats need to work on solidifying and expanding their base in cities and move out toward the suburbs alongside retaining some support, losses can be made, in the countryside.
This election is hardly over and Biden's strong fundraising should be a major concern for Republicans alongside the president's coalition building; utilising former President Obama's popularity. The recent felony charges will likely affect polling in the coming weeks, at which point, a better prediction could be made of how it will affect the election. Whilst the ruling seems set to favour the incumbent president the tightness of polling still reflects a deep discontent with the White House, which should worry Democratic strategists. Both sides have opportunities and this election will come down to which side best exploits theirs'.
