The Shift: Rebuilding the Blue Wall
With incumbent President Joe Biden out of the picture Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are set for a showdown in November. The dropping out of Biden has changed the election's dynamic, revitalising a tired Democratic base and mobilising the greatest Presidential campaign fund within the shortest time ever.
Last month marked the end of a campaign ravaged by the debate fallout, after months of preparation a matter of defining days spelled the end for Biden. His capacity to fulfill the presidential duty was on display live for 90 dreadful minutes. The inability to quite literally be heard and at times incoherent in sentences alongside being unable to challenge Trump's comments decisively gave the GOP a much-needed win. Democrats slowly experienced support seeping off until vital swing states such as Pennsylvania seemed completely out of reach. Yet after dropping out, a move hailed by Democrats as honourable, and endorsing his Vice President Democrats have once more picked up the pace. Harris rapidly took a hold of the Biden Campaign's infrastructure giving her national resources from the get-go.
Moreover, the swap proved popular among the base and voters in general. Kamala Harris has managed to gain momentum swiftly, receiving endorsements from younger celebrities thereby making headway into the youth vote in a way unmatched by Biden this year, and re-gain the upper hand in national polling alongside some swing state polling. The change is happy news for Democrats sunken by a bad news cycle, equally, the difference between defeating Biden and Harris is unwelcome news by Republicans. However, what is the state of the race, and who could claim victory if today was Election Day?
The map below analyses several factors including; the importance of the issue, historical election results (federal and local), the candidate's appeal in a state, polling, and more all put together to predict the winner of each state and ultimately the winner of the presidency. Newcomer Kamala Harris is making a strong first impression this month, a resurgence for Democrats since just last month.
Following a positive trend for the Trump-Vance ticket Vice President Kamala Harris has managed to upend the Republican momentum enjoyed by the party since the presidential debate. Her candidacy has reinvigorated the Democratic Party's base, whether it be in her first rally held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin or a later event in Atlanta, Georgia Kamala Harris is being positively welcomed. Moreover, the swap has reset polling and allowed her party to regain its prior momentum in the Rust Belt and other swing states. This month marks a dramatic shift from July to the great benefit of Harris.
However, the traditionally red states of Arizona and Georgia remain within Trump's grip. The 2020 result - with both being won by Joe Biden by tiny margins - was an oddity and reflected a deeply unique set of circumstances. Arizona has been won by Republicans in presidential elections since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952 sparing only once for Bill Clinton and then for Joe Biden and Georgia has been red since Ronald Reagan first ran for president sparing the same 2 elections. Yet both states are trending toward the Democrats, population spurts and changing voter demographics are helping turn some once deeply red states purple. Arizona and Georgia are competitive and could go either way, though, currently both of them are set to return to the GOP. Both polling, in the form of a headwind for Trump the past months, and history are leading reasons for the Trump-Vance ticket earning back support. Moreover, minor gains in the 2022 midterm elections in House seats reflect a contrast to Michigan and Nevada in which Democrats remained at net zero difference showcasing how the GOP is able to turn momentum into real votes in these places. However, these states will not be won by grand margins, this prediction hands the states with the slightest of margins to the Republican Party, and Harris' recent momentum could shift both states. To cement his control Donald J. Trump must focus on combating his felon status and attack the Biden Administration on the economy and immigration. Harris should ruthlessly exploit her status as a prosecutor and focus on Trump hindering bipartisan policy to tackle issues.
The entire Rust Belt is set to be retained by presumptive nominee Harris, without a Rust Belt VP candidate. All the states - Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - have consistently supported the Democratic nominee since Bill Clinton in 1992, with Wisconsin seeping further back into Dukakis 1988. This longstanding tradition and countability was upended in 2016 by the Trump-Pence ticket and reversed back in 2020 by Biden-Harris. Whether Harris can win the states again remains to be seen, yet her quick resurgence in state polling, with her leading in all the states, showcases a broad acceptance and perhaps even approval of the Vice President. Considering Democrats have been underestimated in recent elections; whether it be in the 2022 midterms when the red wave failed to amass or the many abortion referendums secured handily by pro-choice campaigns often backed by Democrats within deep Republican territory Kamala Harris could potentially be pulling ahead even more then polling reflects. However, her swift taking of the top-dog position from Trump, something that took Biden months in some states and did not occur in others, is a testimony to her ability to bolster the Democratic voting bloc and win back support. Moreover, in these states, Nikki Haley garnered strong support, a strength for Harris as Haley voters overwhelmingly supported Biden and are likely to seamlessly switch between the Democratic candidates. lastly, a weak showing for the GOP in 2022 showcases how Democrats have started to rebuild the Blue Wall.
Nevada is a stronghold for Democrats; the party has in recent years been a backbone of the blue strategy, with the state going blue even in the upset of 16' and having a deeply blue state legislator and congressional delegation. Only the Governor of Nevada and a singular House representative are senior political roles held by the GOP. However, the state has trended to the right which has opened the state up as a real possibility for a Republican nominee; Trump leads in some state polling, Harris in others. Though the Democratic tendencies of the state, historically and recently in the 2022 midterms, suggest the state leans toward Harris, by a very small margin. Just a month ago Nevada seemed out of reach for Biden, now the Vice President has managed to turn around the situation.
North Carolina is a swing state, however, also a historical red state. It's been red in every presidential election since Ronald Reagan, except 2008 when it voted for Obama. The Democrats have been growing, managing to expand their House seats from the state in 2022, yet the GOP continues to muster strong support as seen by the re-electing of a Republican Senator by a strong margin for a swing state the same year. Moreover, Trump has enjoyed a long-lasting lead in the state this election cycle which would make a sudden Kamala Harris entrance near unbelievable. However, since launching her campaign polling has tightened to margins of 1-2% with her winning in some by similar margins. This state could go either way. Yet history and Republican-leaning voters currently suggest a Republican grip, that is, however, slipping.
Former swing states like Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia have all steadied and trended toward Kamala Harris in a defining way, making the states much less competitive. Trump-Vance pulling ahead in these states now seems unreasonable, though could still happen with resources, resources the GOP may not be willing to seemingly throw away.
This is a new race, without a doubt. Donald J. Trump has been put on the defensive after a long campaign on Democratic turf, whether Harris can keep him there remains to be seen. Yet her performance so far suggests she can and will. Moreover, the Harris ticket remains open, allowing for an exciting VP running mate who could help in vital swing states and broaden her appeal to moderates. Something Trump's J. D. Vance will struggle with as a clear right-winger of the GOP. Despite the late entrance and recent energy Kamala Harris is not guaranteed victory, she could plausibly still lose, if Wisconsin flipped just this month she would be behind, and this race will come down to the hard-earned votes in swing state America.
