The Shift: Biden Campaign Back to the Drawing Board
With President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump set for a 2024 rematch we've looked at polls, past presidential election results from 1980 and onwards alongside other elections such as primaries, senatorial and house elections alongside the importance of issue to predict the outcome.
Since last month incumbent President Joe Biden has managed to overtake former President Trump in both national and state polling, the trajectory was clearly in the Biden Campaign's favour. The 34 felony charges Donald Trump faced were reshaping the narrative and providing the electorate with plenty of negative Trump attention. However, after the first presidential debate, in which Biden wildly underperformed and Trump outdid expectations, Democratic support declined, and the Republicans received an even greater uptick. The positive Biden-Harris HQ trend had been broken.
The debate performance placed Mr Biden's greatest weakness, his age, on live national television, something Mr Trump exploited. However, many Americans will spend their vote on what is presumed best for their wallet. The economy always plays a central role in any election. Yet the Biden Campaign cannot find solace in high economic confidence, Gallup's Economic Confidence Index polls optimism at a net -33 (slightly better than May) and reflects continuing worries about the economic climate. Inflation may be down, however, voters are still living with higher prices and the interest rate remains high. These factors counteract the overperforming job creation and relatively strong growth. Though, on the bright side for Joe Biden the number of polled individuals rating the economy as excellent rose by 3% to a 3-month high of 25%, this was evened out by a 2% increase in those viewing the economy as poor, at 48%. The middle category, only fair, lost 5% landing at 28%, the lowest in a year. The economy could become a strength for President Biden if for example interest rate cuts were announced and people started perceiving the economy more positively.
The map below takes these factors into account - historical results, importance of issues, and more. Former President Trump handily re-secures the White House this month, by a landslide margin. States such as Michigan and Pennsylvania returned to the former president after a short vacation with Biden. However, interestingly Wisconsin remains a vulnerable link and could shift in Biden's favour, the clearest swing state with said possibility.
The presidential debate was a clear flop for the White House and has culminated in the undoing of a hard-earned positive trend. The Trump Campaign has enjoyed a hefty increase in support in all swing states, most notably those in the rust-belt, seen as Biden's easiest path to victory. Importantly if the debate had not been Mr Biden could expect a prediction in which he would win, the entire Rust Belt had been moving in his favour. However, after the debate his support declined.
Arizona and Georgia are both historical red states. However, the recent population spurt within the sunbelt has created a new competitiveness, as seen in 2020 when both states were won by Joe Biden alongside the extraordinary Senate races the state experienced. Yet polling suggests Donald Trump has managed to rebuild support and now enjoys a strong margin, exemplified by the presidential debate.
Both Michigan and Pennsylvania are traditional Democratic states, however, are set to defect to the GOP presumptive nominee. The debate has played an overarching role in shifting support toward the former president. Both states immediately saw Trump gain significant ground swiftly. Despite Democrats making gains in the 2022 mid-term election alongside retaining the governorship in Michigan the state simply feels out of reach currently. Nikki Haley voters once viewed as potential Biden voters are likely to support Trump due to the debate. Moreover, the unsure Democratic-leaning electorate may contemplate not voting at all. Pennsylvania reflects similar circumstances to Michigan, however, with a weaker Democratic position. Considering the similar nature of the states alongside Mr Trump holding a 2% lead over Biden the state seems prone to defecting.
Nevada is usually a strong blue state, the Democrats have 3 out of 4 House seats and both Senators, however, in 2022 the GOP regained the governorship. Moreover, polling has steadily put Mr Trump ahead of Biden. Despite being the only out of this election cycle's swing states to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016 Nevada has simply been trending to the right, last election the Trump Campaign made gains in the state, roughly 2%, and this time is seemingly no different. Moreover, the GOP win of the governorship showcased how the party can win in state-wide elections.
Wisconsin is the only out of the above-mentioned states in which Trump has a lead of less than 1%, wisconsinites seem to not be as worried about Biden's age in the same way polling suggests in both Michigan and Pennsylvania. However, the divided position Wisconsin is in, being very competitive with voters swaying between camps, reflects how voters may switch more easily. The debate once again hurts the Biden Campaign and is the main reason for the state going red. Moreover, the state having prominent Democrats and Republicans means the electorate is open to different candidates. Moving forward Biden should target the state's urban centres like Milwaukee and Madison to gain a strong base on which to expand.
The first presidential debate has had a defining impact on this month's prediction, before the debate Biden was looking increasingly strong. However, the fallout since the debate has erased his temporary lead and may take months to recover. Though, the trend could shift in Mr Biden's favour once more if negative attention is directed toward Mr Trump. Yet still, the current situation reflects the Biden Campaign in desperate need of going back to the drawing board.
