The Shift: Biden's Weakening Popularity
With President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump set for a 2024 rematch we've looked at polls, past presidential election results from 1980 and onwards alongside other elections such as primaries, senatorial and house elections to predict the results.
Since our last prediction much has changed; primaries have been held, favourability polls have shifted and the swing-states have started to solidify in the polls. Former President Trump has seen his favourability increase, whilst President Biden has become less favoured. Both the republicans and the democrats have held their primaries in swing state Michigan with different messages moving toward November. National polling has solidified with Both Mr Biden and Mr Trump stabilising. The economy remains strong in terms of growth and job creation, however, inflation endures and has slowed its decrease. The sting of inflation continues to hurt Americans. The economy has persisted as one of President Biden's biggest weaknesses, however, public confidence in the economy has started to rally in recent months. This is likely to help the president in his re-election efforts, however, currently may only attract some voters.
The map below takes these factors into account - historical results, importance of issues and more. The map remains the same (2020 results) in many states, however, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin are seemingly set to flip. These states are a necessity for Mr Trump, whose chances of victory in Nevada and Pennsylvania are questionable (though not impossible). This months prediction remains the same as the last: Donald J. Trump is set to become the president again. However, with slimmer margins than even last month.
Whilst Mr Trump beats President Biden the margins are much closer than his campaigned would like. If any red state went blue it would hand the election to Mr Biden, this election is simply very close. The former presidents win derives from the continued support of Wisconsinites, however, Wisconsin is quick to change its support from poll to poll. The state has swung ever so slightly back and forth between polls, with Mr Trump bearing the advantage. Both Arizona and Georgia are not as close, both seeing a difference in support in the high single digits. This prediction is certainly not good news for Joe Biden, however, nor is it for Donald Trump. The candidates share vulnerability and this race is anything but over.
Arizona and Georgia are both traditional red states with 2020 being an extraordinary exception. 2024 seems to be a year of return for the states. The success of Democrats to get out protest votes in 2020 handed them the victory. However, this time it's different: Joe Biden is equally if not more unpopular than his competition. These states were won by thousands of votes, not tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands. Considering the unpopularity of Mr Biden it is reasonable to assume that close states such as Arizona and Georgia would change.
Michigan's primary results suggest much stronger support for Mr Biden than Mr Trump. The GOP was significantly more divided with Nikki Haley winning more than a quarter of the votes, outperforming expectations. The protest vote against Mr Biden did garner support, however, not enough to pose a major threat. The uncommitted are unlikely to switch to Mr Trump due to his foreign policy as well. Whilst the Haley voters are much more expected to bid adieu to the republicans.
Pennsylvania has seen a shift toward Mr Trump, with him leading in the polls. However, a recent special election in suburban Philadelphia suggests stronger democratic support than predicted. The battle ground of Pennsylvania is the suburbs, urban and rural communities are safe for both parties. Furthermore, the results of the 2022 midterms showcases support for democrats. A majority of the states representatives in the House are democrats and both Senators are blue. The results of 2016 were highly unusual, with the state being solid blue since 1992.
Whilst Nevada likes to think of itself as a swing state it has been won by democrats safely since 2008. Nevada is the only current swing state that did not vote for Mr Trump in 2016, 2024 will be no different as it stands now. Once again primary results showcase larger division among republicans than democrats. Alongside democrats dominating state wide elections.
Wisconsin is Mr Biden's and Mr Trump's best chance at victory. The state was won by President Biden by a relatively small margin in 2020 and the 2022 midterms showcase the strength of the GOP in the state. Wisconsin currently going red is due to polls indicating the small lead alongside the GOPs performance in 2022.
This is still anyones race and things could easily shift by November. However, as it stands now Mr Trump enjoys a slight edge on President Biden. All the swing states are technically up for grabs, however, Wisconsin seems to be the closest. Both candidates are likely to try and sway voters in the vital state. Otherwise Mr Trump could target Michigan and Pennsylvania or even Nevada. Mr Biden does not share that luxury, except for maybe Arizona (and Georgia if demographic trends change).
