The Race to Replace Le Président de la France

In the late spring months and early summer of 2017, France made history, breaking decades of precedence of socialist (PS) and liberal-conservative (what’s now Les Républicains) presidents. Emmanuel Macron the election winner proclaimed a new page in French history stating “I want it to be a page of hope and renewed trust”. The election was seen as decisive, with the pro-EU and globalist Macron on one side and the isolationist and anti-migration candidate Le Pen on the other. Macron is the centrist, Le Pen the right winger. Noteworthy is that Mr. Macron trounced Mademoiselle Le Pen, winning twice the vote share 66% to 33%. Emmanuel Macron moreover ensured the happy crowds of his victory speech that in the future there would be no reason to vote for extremism, implying to vote for Le Pen.

The 2022 election was a much harder-fought battle, being a rematch between Macron and Le Pen. Striking, crisis, and resignations shocked the Macron government and played a huge role in the 2022 election. Mr. Macron retained his title of president, however, to a much narrower majority than last time around (58% to 41%).

The next election in 2027 will see one large difference from 2017 and 2022, Macron will not be on the ballot. The French constitution states it clear; that a president may only sit two consecutive terms (though he can make a bid to be president in 2032 and sit yet another two terms). It may seem early to talk about 2027 now, however, many of Emmanuel Macron’s ministers and party friends are already starting to position themselves to replace the sitting president.

For the party Renaissance which Macron leads the most important question is who can beat Le Pen. For now, many of the vying candidates are staying in line, being kept in line, nobody would benefit from a terrible term. But who will replace Emmanuel Macron? There are currently four main front-runners, of course, 2027 is a far way away and anything could happen.

First and foremost is Gérald Darmanin, minister of the interior. A right-leaning persona in Macron’s centrist party is advantageous as France has moved to the right in recent years. The last two elections have seen no clear left-leaning candidate move on to the second round (though they have come close). On the 27th of August, he held a political event in the town of Tourcoing, where he once was a mayor. At this event, he tried to portray a picture of himself as a “normal” guy, unlike the political elites that are the other ministers. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne was sent to keep the aspiring president in line so as not to stir up too much attention or infighting among the cabinet.

Second is the former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe with a lot going for himself. Being the most popular politician in all of France, sitting at a very comfortable 55% approval, more than 10% ahead of Le Pen. Furthermore, Mr. Philippe is well ahead of Mr. Darmanin. This according to Ifop. Notably, this is greatly surpassing Mr Macron’s popularity. With this in mind, it is not surprising that Edouard Philippe is seen as the best-positioned candidate within Renaissance to appeal to voters, centrists, and more right learning alike.

Thirdly is Bruno Le Maire, the finance minister. Often found in international meetings and representing France abroad. With his 46% approval rating, he should feel good, but not too good. He still has a mountain to climb to reach Mr. Philippe’s numbers. During the summer he was seen out and about greeting holidaygoers, a play for voters and attention (a smart move). The technocrat has sat as finance minister for the longest duration any finance minister has since the inception of the fifth republic in 1958, maybe now he’s looking for a change in scenery.

Last but not least; the 34-year-old dubbed “Macron boy” Mr. Attal (appointed education minister during the summer) has made headlines and taken on the role of front-runner in the race to replace Le Président de la France. He made international waves by banning the abayas in state schools. Has taken control of the polls now being the preferred candidate to replace Macron within Renaissance, only with a razor-thin lead. A youthful spirit, just like Macron back in 2017, could be the obvious choice for a party founded by a youth reformist spirit. Mr. Attal has one of the best positions to replace Macron currently.

Other notable mentions are Jean Castex, a former Prime Minister during Macron’s tenure. Alongside Yaël Braun-Pivet, head of the National Assembly.

2027 is still far in the future, but Macron will still be making headlines and controlling the media’s attention for a long time. He may even decide to give the president role another go later on in his life. But for now, Mr. Macron’s political friends need to tread a thin line between positioning themselves for the presidential race and respecting their boss to whom they owe their jobs and perhaps even careers. The politician who does this best will be Emmanuel Macron’s replacement.