The Battle Ground - America’s Senate
2024 is not just a presidential election year; governorships, house seats and notably the upper house within Congress, the Senate, is holding vital elections. The 2022 midterms saw the democrats retain an unprecedented majority, even extending their majority by 1 (in a body made up by 100). The Senate map of 2024 strongly favours Republicans. This makes a blue majority an uphill battle for the democrats. Mr Biden needs the Senate for a 2nd term and Mr Trump needs the Senate to follow through on his promise.
The Republican‘s advantage comes from the starting seat amount, in other words the Senate seats not up for grabs. The GOP starts at 38 and the Democrats at 28 giving them a 10 seat advantage, not insignificant when a majority is 51. In case of a 50-50 result the Vice President is the tie breaker meaning the vote would go whatever way the presidency swayed. The map below showcases the latest opinion polls by FiveThirtyEight.
Current polling suggests that the democratic party would retain their Senate control. 2 of the independent Senators are incumbents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont (not an election year for him) and Angus King of Maine, both caucus with the Democrats. Dan Osborn of Nebraska would be a new face within the Senate, as a former union leader he is likely to caucus with the democrats as well, however, his support is not needed for control. The Vice President breaks a tie, that hinges on Joe Biden winning re-election something he does not do according to our latest prediction.
Taking a closer look at the individual results most are not surprising, a blue California and red Florida. However, there are outliers such as Montana and Nebraska. Other states have much closer elections than the map shows; Texas is won by a 1% margin, Arizona as well alongside Wisconsin. Michigan, Ohio and Maryland are all competitive states.
Arizona flipping red is due to the incumbent senator leaving the Democratic Party with supposed plans to still seek re-electio, however, not officially declare. Kyrsten Sinema holds a pivotal position in the Arizona senate race. Her candidacy currently would hand the election to Republicans by splitting the democrats votes. However, Sinema may be able to pull off an upset victory, that requires a candidacy first. Either way democrats are not currently looking strong in the state. Though could win in a head to head with Republicans.
The rust-belt going blue can be attributed to democratic incumbency alongside economic policy helping the states. Furthermore, states like Michigan and Pennsylvania Have larger urban populations that tend to be left leaning. Both Detroit and Philadelphia are major left cities in these states. Wisconsin does not share such urban geography, however, is a liberal state in comparison to similar states. Traditional democratic values heavily contribute to victory, such beliefs resonate well with the people of these states. Minnesota is a strong democratic state. Ohio polling has in recent weeks shifted to favouring the democrats, perhaps due to a well organised campaign and solid candidate.
Both Maine and Nebraska are independent on the map. Maine has voted for the incumbent Angus King many times for both senator and governor, his personal popularity can not be understated. He can win the state if he wants. Nebraska on the other hand would be electing a new person to the senate, they would vote out the incumbent Republican for an independent. The limited polling from the state shows the popularity of the independent candidate Dan Osborn. The disappointment many Americans feel toward the current 2 party system may be a contributing factor to his current inevitability. His lack of political experience is appealing, in other words he is not a career politician.
Ted Cruz of Texas barely wins re-election with the democratic challenger moving closer and closer in polls. Mr Cruz’s personal popularity is tanking his campaign, him being the Republican candidate is his only strength currently. Texas will likely flip blue, the polling trend show that the democrats have the momentum and Mr Cruz’s tenure leaves plenty of room for attacks. Currently Ted Cruz pulls off a victory.
The fact that democrats currently poll as well as they do is very impressive and worrying for Republican strategists. The strong polling of the democrat’s senators may be transferable to the presidential campaign, that remains to be seen. However, the undeniable truth remains: this is the democrats time. Parties with the presidency do not often gain seats in elections or retain majorities. The democrats ability to do this is sign of a strengthening party with great strategists.
