Overview: Sadiq Khan and the London Mayoral Election
London is set for a mayoral election on the 2nd of May, incumbent Sadiq Khan is vying for yet another 4 years at the city's top job. Mr Khan has been the Mayor of London since 2016 and has proved popular, successfully fending off Conservative challengers with good margins.
The mayoral election will act as an indicator for the United Kingdom's general election later this year or early next (the election date has not been set). If Labour can translate its high national polling into tangible votes in London it may be a sign of things to come. Labour has already proven itself capable in local elections and by-elections, however, London will be one of the first large electoral tests for the party considering the new Conservative leadership. Moreover, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has an interest in proving the polls wrong to stabilise his party. London is simply a big election where Labour and the Conservatives practically go head-to-head in a winner-take-all situation, the winner and their margin of victory will be important.
While there are numerous candidates in the mayoral race, their significance and likelihood of being elected vary. The contenders include Sadiq Khan, the incumbent mayor and Labour's candidate, Susan Hall representing the Tories, Rob Blackie running for the Liberal Democrats, Zoë Garbett for the Greens, Howard Cox of Reform UK, and Natalie Campbell, an independent (formerly Conservative).
Sadiq Khan is gunning for an unprecedented 3rd term, he's defending 2 prior election cycles alongside his climate policy, including ULEZ, record on crime, especially violent, and housing. The ULEZ scheme has been divisive for many and Susan Hall has heavily criticised the mayor for the project. Furthermore, the Conservative mayoral candidate has stated her distrust over him not wanting to expand ULEZ. Otherwise, many of Mr Khan's other climate initiatives are not nearly as contentious and often see broader support. Crime has increased since the mayor took power in 2016 and his opponents viscously point this out. However, crime rates have risen faster in England and Wales as a whole. Nevertheless, the picture of Sadiq Khan not being able to tackle crime has been painted, fairly or unfairly. The London Mayor does have key responsibilities and powers in fighting crime, as does the Home Secretary. An older poll records that 60% asked think he's doing badly within containing crime. London is amidst a housing crisis and the inability to handle the issue is tainting Mr Khan, an older poll says 70% of Londoners think he's doing badly in the subject. Whilst climate policies tend to see support from younger generations the inability for young Britons to get a home in the capital may anger them into voting for somebody else, not necessarily the Tories. As anyone who has held power for a longer period Mr Khan must defend his record on these issues and more, his success or failure in doing this will determine the election.
Current polling indicates that Mr Khan holds a substantial lead over the Conservatives. Mr Khan refuses to believe that he has a large lead, stating the race is "neck and neck." He does not want to fall victim to Labour voters not showing up to the ballot box. However, the combined support for the Greens and Liberal Democrats forms a significant minority, and depending on their collective strength in May, voter splitting could result in a victory for the Conservative candidate. This possibility is amplified by the new voting system, where the candidate with the most votes wins (first past the post), unlike the previous system of supplementary voting where voters could select a second choice. Meaning their vote would be reallocated if their candidate was not in the top 2 (often the case for smaller parties). Under this new system, supporters of the Greens and Liberal Democrats face a dilemma, as they cannot simultaneously vote for their party and Mr Khan. The election will come down to whether said voters chose Khan over their party. Furthermore, Susan Hall could risk losing votes to Reform UK which has been surging in recent national polling. Reform UK is hoping to gain representation in the London Assembly election held the same day.
The result will come down to if voters react to the new system, which they likely will. Mr Khan has directed his campaigning toward convincing traditional Green and Lib Dem voters to support him. He has been successful in many aspects, namely his former Liberal Democratic opponent endorsing him, knowing that vote fragmentation could hand Susan Hall victory. Moreover, the result will showcase if Reform UK has grown in support and how worrisome the party should be for Downing Street. The London Mayoral election, and London Assembly election, could be summarised as a mini-general election that will reflect the sentiment of Great Britain's largest city and capital.
