Overview: New Dutch Coalition
Since the Dutch election of 2023, the parliament, located in The Hague, has been fragmented. Now a government is set to take shape, with the far-right PVV at its core.
Before delving into the new political alignment some context is needed; the last election marked the end of Mark Rutte, the long-standing Prime Minister of the Netherlands alongside leader of the liberal VVD. Mr Rutte had been at the helm of Dutch politics since his tenure as PM began in 2010. However, after his loose coalition fell a part, that took 10 months to negotiate, after just 18 months due to immigration Mr Rutte resigned. A new leader of the VVD was found and for the first time in closer to 2 decades the VVD headed toward Election Day with a new leader, Dilan Yeşilgöz.
Migration had marked the end of Mark Rutte's fourth government which showcased how contentious and divisive the question had become. In the political turmoil long-time politician and anti-migration speaker Geert Wilders managed to exploit the situation, his party surged ahead of the election. Surpassing the newly formed GreenLeft-Labour coalition, the popular New Social Contract (NSC) party alongside the VVD - that plummeted in the polls in comparison to last election. Mr Wilders now headed The Netherlands largest political force in the House of Representatives.
The PVV with Geert Wilders at the forefront started negotiating with other right-wing parties, such as the VVD and NSC alongside smaller groups. The 3 would attain a majority together, the GreenLeft-Labour group had no other large leftist party to turn to. However, after a scandal about the state's finances the NSC walked away from the negotiating table. This culminated in a near impossible situation for Geert Wilders and the PVV, without the NSC there was no clear path to a coalition. The numerous small parties would be unmanageable and are very different from each other.
The PVV pushed on and Geert Wilders announced he would not be the next PM unless he had the backing of all the coalition parties. However, after plummeting in the polls and the PVV making major ground the NSC came back to the negotiations, likely with the hope that a general election would not be called, as they would lose half their vote share. Moreover, the VVD did not want an election for the same reason, though they had lost less in national polling.
Hence the new coalition, between the PVV, VVD, NSC and Farmer-Citizen Movement (being Mr Wilders' closest ally). After months of waiting Geert Wilders finally managed to create a workable solution, alongside the other coalition parties' leaders. However, details still remain to be finalised, for example the Prime Ministership is yet to be allocated, and its unclear if any of the 4 parties' could lead such a diverse coalition. Geert Wilders had already announced he will not be the next Prime Minister of The Netherlands if he cannot muster broad support. An idea has been that no party leader would become PM, though that raises the question of how to move forward. The prime ministerial post will be a contentious question and will require unanimous support from the largest parties no matter who is chosen.
The coalition, based on a document, required heavy compromising. The PVV dropped its controversial social policy to ban the Quran and mosques alongside fiscal plans. Despite the compromising on both sides the document still entails one of the most right-wing governments in Dutch history.
Unsurprisingly migration, the issue that helped get Geert Wilders into this position of power, was a centrepiece of the compromise; with the coalition promising to cut immigration with the strictest and most comprehensive policies ever. The Asylum Crisis Act, that aims to temporarily upend the processing of new asylum applications and more, is 1 of the many policies aimed at reducing immigration to the country. Importantly the coalition sets itself a part from other right-wing governments with parties like the PVV as members by reiterating the nation's support and by extension theirs' for Ukraine. This differs from for example Hungry, with Fidesz in charge, and the increasingly hostile Polish government that was removed from power by Donald Tusk. Moreover, the current housing crisis had been a great concern for voters and the issue isa dresses in the document. The coalition promises to build 100,000 new homes each year, 30% have must be for social housing. The scrapping of some climate goals has been a controversial move by the coalition parties and it remains to be seen how it will play out with the voters.
The political future of The Netherlands remains to be written, however, the rise of the PVV is clear, as is the entrance of the NSC alongside the subsequent fall of the VVD. The new landscape entails a very different playing field. Alongside the end of 1 of Europe's last liberal bastions. Moving forward the new found partners will have to work hard in order to not fail, next election will prove whether the coalition was successful or not and what party was viewed as most competent. Will the PVV's grip slip? Can the VVD make a comeback? And can the NSC remain relevant? Only time will tell, alongside the Dutch electorate.
