Overview: British Conservative Concerns
The governing Conservative party has marked 200 constituencies as vulnerable in the coming general election. Including Weston-super-Mare, in Somerset, that has been held by the Tory MP John Penrose since 2005 and was won by a 17,121 majority in 2019, alongside several constituencies with majorities of over 15,000. The areas deemed as vulnerable receive extra support from the Conservative party HQ. The Tories deeming so-called safe seats, such as Weston-super-Mare, as vulnerable showcases the defensive approach the government is taking this looming general election, and the difference between what the party states publicly and how it operates internally. The new categorisation of so many constituencies as at risk if being lost reflects how deeply unsatisfied the public is with the Conservatives. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's approval ratings have been a steady slide down ever since taking office, and are below what Boris Johnson's received in some polls at the height of his scandal ridden end. The abrupt end to Liz Truss' premiership has not helped either.
Officially the Tories have long pursued an 80:20 strategy in which they defend 80 seats and target 20 constituencies currently held by other parties. However, the characterisation of 200 constituencies as vulnerable reflects a much more defensive approach, in which the Tories resources might not hold throughout. It seems political strategists and analysts have decided on trying prevent loses instead of making gains, a strategy based in reality as current polling suggests Labour would win roughly double their national vote share. Moreover, this is exacerbated by the huge number of Tories stepping down, thereby losing the incumbency advantage alongside political know-how, totalling near 1000 years of experience between them, the Conservative MPs not standing for re-election, as a recent Guardian article laid out. Furthermore, the defections across the House floor is weighing the government down, not least Natalie Elphicke. Wes Streeting, the Shadow Secretary of Health and Social Care, has also stated he has personally spoken with more Tory MPs contemplating jumping ship, going as far to say that the government's MPs are "in despair."
This election cycle's by-elections have seen mind bogglingly large swings; North Shropshire in which the Liberal Democrats gained 34.2%, Tivorton and Honiton alongside Somerton and Frome in which the Lib Dems mustered near 30% more support then in 2019 or Tamworth where Labour garnered about 24% more votes. These by-elections have the Tories worried, in a general election it would entail gigantic loses, which is why they are placing more resources into holding seats, whilst the opposition is gunning to make large gains. The former Red Wall in the North and the current Blue Wall in the South are all under threat. The New Statesman predicts that Labour would win 419 seats if an election was held today, regaining the Red Wall alongside making gains in the South, more than double what the Conservatives are prone to get, 156 seats, whilst the Lib Dems would double their MPs to 30.
Hexham, a constituency in England bordering Scotland, has been Conservative since 1918, the district's borders have been redrawn to some extent, yet polls and predictions by the New Statesman alongside Electoral Calculus suggest Labour winning 10% more then the Tories. Wycombe in the South paints the same picture, Tory blue since 1951 yet Labour is set for nearly double their vote share. The local elections concur; this year the Liberal Democrats, not even a 10th the size of the Conservatives in the House of Commons, won more councillors than Rishi Sunak's party. Past years have also seen the opposition enjoy explosive gains in local elections.
The state of the Conservative party is abysmal. Heading a deeply unpopular government embroiled by chaos and scandals alongside a NHS in crisis and being the face of Brexit, which most Brits now find regrettable, is eating away their support. Maybe the Tories have simply been in power long enough for a change to be due. Maybe public sentiment has changed in Labour's favour, such moves are often outside politicians' hands. However, historical swings and sways of defections are uncommon, even for an incumbent party. Rather the Conservatives have a fundamental issue; with themselves and what they believe in and until they make up their minds about what they stand for they won't stand at all. However, the scandal ridden past and struggling situation are the main contributing factors to their fall.
