Madame President: Nikki Haley’s Road to the White House
With the Republican primary in full swing and the first primary debate over, many are looking toward Nikki Haley as a potential Republican nominee for president in 2024.
On the fourteenth of February this year, Nikki Haley announced her presidential bid. Now, more than six months later, and the first Republican primary debate behind us, many are considering Nikki Haley to be one of the standout candidates of this primary.
Throughout the presidential hopefuls political career as the former South Carolina governor and former UN ambassador for the United States, she has managed to be seen as a moderate. This gives her an advantageous position compared to other candidates such as Ron DeSantis, whose attempted to position himself to the right of Donald J. Trump to secure Trump’s voter base. However, this political gamble has yielded no dividends for the DeSantis campaign, in fact it has led to him dropping from the clear second front-runner to a contested front-runner position. He has lost over 25% (5% of the Republican electorate) of his voter base since announcing his campaign on the twenty-fourth of May.
This leaves us with the conclusion that Republicans don’t especially like policies to the right of President Trump, and if we are to make another conclusion, perhaps based more on assumptions, nor would Republicans want someone who outright copies the former President. Nobody can be a better Trump than Trump himself. This is appealing to moderate Republicans, who might consider voting for Trump (but not DeSantis). These same voters may also be able to sway towards a perceived moderate like Nikki Haley. With closer to 45% of Republicans being able to be classified as moderates either in politics or in name, this leaves a large voter base for Nikki Haley to appeal to. This, alongside a large “never vote Trump” voter block, could ensure Nikki Haley’s ascent to the White House. However, how does the current state of the Nikki Haley campaign look, and does she have a shot at the White House?
Taking a look at her current position, we see that she’s polling at an unremarkable 6.1%, compared to Trump’s 55% and DeSantis’ nearly 15%. She is currently the fourth front-runner. Only looking at this data may make it appear that her chances of becoming the Republican presidential nominee are slim, however, it doesn’t take into account the aforementioned appeal of Nikki Haley as a moderate and experienced politician and debater. Furthermore, it doesn’t consider how many other moderate Republican presidential candidates exist and how they split the votes between themselves, which will not be the case once less popular presidential hopefuls revert back to reality and start to drop out later on in the race. Reviewing her numbers from earlier this year we see that she was polling at close to 10%, demonstrating her broader appeal among the electorate. If she were to continue her upward trend, likely considering how strong a debater she is, alongside some endorsements, she may stand a real chance of being chosen.
She’s still a long-shot candidate with a long way to go if she’s even to start considering the general election. However, considering America’s love for long-shot candidates like Barack Obama and Donald J. Trump, it is not unreasonable to assume that Haley might stand a chance.
In conclusion, Nikki Haley is a reasonably strong candidate with experience as South Carolina’s governor and The United States United Nations ambassador. She’s a strong debater, which will help her stand out in the crowded primary field and push her message across. The Haley campaign is, moreover, likely to benefit from when other smaller candidates start to drop out. These factors are likely to result in the continued upward trend of Nikki Haley’s support. Even though she is a long-shot candidate, she’s still a candidate with a path to the White House.
