How Haley Voters Could Decide the Presidency
The Republican primary was clear cut; former President Donald J. Trump clearly defeated all rivals, including Nikki Haley that attracted moderate GOP voters with a strong distaste for the former president. Now her voters have become an integral part of both sides strategies as they vie for the Haley base.
An admittedly old poll by Emerson College from March showcased 63% of Haley primary voters set on voting for the Democratic nominee in November, Trump could count on 27% of her votes. 10% remained undecided. These same voters overwhelmingly supported Biden in 2020 as well, though, his and the Democrats' support among the group has only grown stronger. Likewise in an ABC Ohio GOP primary exit poll near half of Haley's electorate preferred the Biden over Trump. Ohio is not seen as competitive, however, the strong showing for President Biden reflects a strong commitment against Trump among Nikki Haley supporters.
Regarding swing states such as Pennsylvania (19 electors), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6) Haley performed relatively well, less so in Nevada, despite having withdrawn in many of the states. Only Pennsylvania and Nevada held primaries in which only registered Republicans could vote, practically meaning a host of other states allowed both independents and Democrats to vote in the state's primary election. This means that the result in many states should be taken with a pinch of salt.
In notable Pennsylvania, that holds a closed primary only open to registered Republicans, Haley mustered 16.5% of the primary vote, or 157,581 votes. In a hypothetical match up using the result from 2020 a not insignificant 17,334 voters directly switch from Trump to presumptive nominee Kamala Harris, assuming all Haley voters either voted for Trump or Biden in 2020. That would entail a swing of 0.25% in regard to 2020 giving the Democratic Party more breathability in a competitive state. A slightly less optimistic view, slashing Democrats' new support in half, still means a swing of 0.125%, not unremarkable.
North Carolina, the only out of the above examples to have voted for Trump in 2020, experienced high support for Nikki Haley and has a semi-closed primary, meaning registered Republicans and independents can vote. Rearranging her base according to Emerson College would tightened the margins of the state, won by about 80,000 votes. A total of 27,592 votes would move to the Harris camp, a swing of 0.4% in the Democrats' favour. Trump would still edge the Democratic ticket out by 45,000 votes, a lead, however, a much lesser one.
The state that has gone least to Trump, Nevada a closed primary, held both a primary and a caucus. Haley did not win the primary despite being the only real candidate; none of the above was by far the winner of the primary. However, she still garnered some 24,000 votes, of which 2,640 could switch to Vice President Harris. The group represents about 0.2% of the total votes cast in Nevada, considering the current lead the Trump Campaign enjoys in the state the Democratic ticket can find solace in that Haley voters could boost them.
In the Sun Belt Arizona, that has a semi-closed primary, with its 11 electors would double the victory margin, from roughly 10,000 to about 20,000, for the Democratic presumptive nominee according to the 2020 result. The shift could aid Democrats' bid to retain the state in 2024, despite Arizona's long standing tradition of supporting the Republican candidate.
Deep South and Bible Belt Georgia is similar to Arizona in its strong support for the GOP presidential nominee throughout recent history. It to was secured by an insignificant 10,000 or so votes in 2020 and would see the gap distance to about 20,000. George has an open primary, meaning anyone could vote in the primary including Democrats. In Michigan which uses a similar system Haley enjoyed some of her highest support, over a fourth of the vote share (perhaps due to the presence of Democratic voters). This would translate to about an extra 33,000 votes for Kamala Harris, strengthening the ticket's margin in the Rust Belt state pivotal for re-election. While in Wisconsin, a much closer race in 2020, that uses an open primary Biden would lead Trump by 40,000 votes instead of 30,000.
Working with election data from 4 years prior is certainly unreliable. Voter shifts and changes in demographics all effect the current standing of the election, the 2020 result cannot just be transferred to today. Moreover, the use of open primaries in some states could skew the result, meaning some voters are counted twice, as a large minority of Haley supporters are Democrats. However, it can help illustrate in what way Haley supporters could come to define this election. The Biden Team was actively talking and campaigning to Nikki Haley voters so too will Kamala Harris, and Trump is trying to lock down this portion of the electorate. In an election year as close as this one every vote counts, especially if it's coming from the other side.
Notably this faction of the GOP is hardly interested in the Democratic ticket, rather, the candidates opposed to Donald J. Trump. This practically means that this group would likely vote for any Democratic nominee as long as Trump is the presidential contender for the Republican Party. This practically means Biden dropping out of the race is of no concern regarding keeping Haley voters. Even the Haley endorsement of former President Trump has not budged these voters, nor has the debate.
