From Their Peak to Being Weak: How the SNP is Unraveling

On February 15th of this year, Holyrood experienced a political earthquake when Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister of Scotland, resigned after nearly nine years in power. During her tenure, the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) achieved their best election results ever, winning 48 out of 59 Scottish MP seats. They came close to securing a majority in Holyrood twice, falling short by only one or two seats. Sturgeon also revitalized the independence movement, garnering substantial support. Her resignation marked a significant moment as Scotland and the SNP had to move forward without her. Sturgeon’s name recognition and popularity meant that her successor would have to shoulder this substantial responsibility.

The race to find her successor exposed unexpected divisions within the Scottish Nationalist Party, with the new leader narrowly winning a small majority. Furthermore, a party financing scandal has dominated the news over the past year, involving the arrests (though later releases) of Nicola Sturgeon and her husband. This has presented a challenging start for the new first minister and SNP leader, Humza Yousaf. As a new party leader, he has found himself in an unusual situation, needing to address ongoing financing scandal news instead of focusing on building a political profile. With these factors in mind it is not surprising that the SNP’s polling numbers declined, reaching a low point of 35%, down from the 45% they enjoyed earlier in the election cycle.

While the polls have stabilized, with the party regaining 5% of popular support, the damage has been done, tarnishing both the party’s reputation and Humza Yousaf’s image. Even if the party manages to recover to pre-scandal levels in the polls, the opposition will have an easy target for attacks the next election.

Throughout the rest of the election cycle, Humza Yousaf is likely to face continuous questioning about the scandal, forcing him to focus on his response rather than his politics, policies, and profile building, regardless of his response he will ultimately lose. Additionally, national parties like Labour and the Liberal Democrats see a significant opportunityto win back seats in Scotland, with Labour having the most to gain. This poses a serious challenge to the SNP, as these well-funded and established UK parties now view Scotland as an opportunity rather than an untouchable SNP stronghold.

So, what conclusion can be drawn? The SNP will need to defend its position as King of the Hill in the next election against two parties with historical roots in Scotland while rebuilding its reputation among the electorate—a process that will take time. Humza Yousaf can rest somewhat comfortably for now, with Holyrood elections in the distant future, but he should be concerned about the impending UK general election. The results of the general election will serve as a testament to the SNP and its future.