European Election
The European Union's parliamentary general election is just over 90 days away. Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, has received the backing of the European People's Party for another 5 years at the office. The EPP has seen its seat share in the parliament dwindle, losing seats in every election since 2004. Polls currently suggest that the trend will continue, however, that the EPP would remain the largest party. Her chances of remaining at the helm of European politics are good. Though the rise of the far-right continues and failure to hinder their growth may doom Mrs von der Leyen's party in the long run. Furthermore, the Socialists and Liberals are set to lose seats. Both the Greens and the Left have seen major drops in support, especially the former. The right-wing to far-right ID and ECR are the only groupings polling above the last election's result. This raises the question of why, how come the right wing is benefiting from current circumstances instead of say the Left or Socialist groupings? This article analyses some larger member states political climate alongside Europe in a general sense.
Germany as the most populous EU member state receives the most seats, which means that the country has a significant influence on Brussels. German domestic politics currently favours the opposition parties, center-right CDU and far-right AfD. The coalition government between the SPD, Greens, and FDP has proven unpopular. Olaf Shultz, the German chancellor and leader of the SPD, has dealt with an energy crisis, budgetary chaos and more. The German public does not approve of his handling. Notably, the unpopularity of the major left parties has not led to Die Linke (the Left) gaining in the polls. Interestingly the EU election of 2019 garnered a similar outcome to what current polling suggests. Only the AfD and Greens have changed, nearly switching places. With this in mind, an alike result could be expected, with the AfD growing and the Greens shrinking. Furthermore, Germans often vote for smaller parties in these elections, meaning that national general election polling is not interchangeable with EU election polling. However, polling is still closely aligned with the result considering the last election's outcome. To summarise, in a matter of 5 years, Germany has switched ruling parties only to go back to the CDU. However, this time with more support for the AfD and much less for the Greens.
The French similarly have a deeply unpopular government which has led to the rise of the far-right National Rally. Subsequently leading to Macron's liberals suffering, explaining their EU group affiliate Renew Europe's fall in the polls. Furthermore, the united Left under the NUPES alliance may manage to gain traction making up for socialist loses in Portugal and Malta. Mrs von der Leyen's EPP is represented by Les Républicains which enjoys support around 10%, higher than the 2019 result. The French do not share the Germans tendency to vote for smaller parties, however, do diverge more from general election polling. The NUPES alliance and rise of the National Rally are, however, likely to be showcased in June's election.
Italian politics is prone to dramatic shifts. Last election Lega won an impressive 34%, now they poll at just under 10%. However, Giorgia Meloni has instigated a period of political stability for the country. Parties have remained at their current polling for nearly 1 year. Considering that the main changes in Italy have been between ID- and ECR-affiliated parties the difference may simply be that Mrs Meloni's party takes Lega's place. Giving the ECR some of the ID seats. Otherwise, Italian polling remains similar to that of 2019 and therefor alike results should be expected.
Looking at Europe as a whole individual member states may see changes, however, the bigger picture remains nearly the same. Outside of some minor losses by the EEP, S&D, RE, and the Left alongside major losses for the Greens, nothing has really changed. This election seems to be a repeat of the last. Yes, the right is on the rise, however, the change is not dramatically large. The far-right's rise should not be understated, however, nor should it be overstated either. However, when looking over a greater time span this trend of rising even slightly may become a larger issue if the more established groupings cannot reverse it. The EPP has been losing influence since 2004 and will need to start competing for ID and ECR votes if they are to remain the largest EU party.
