Europe Looks on in Suspense: Who will Win Poland’s General Election
On the fifteenth of October this year Poland will head to the polls to decide what course the country will steer for the coming four years. With the ruling Law and Justice (PiS; the polish acronym for Law and Justice) a right-wing, populist and socially conservative party having ruled since 2015 the election is being seen as testimony to their popularity and way of ruling.
The main opposition headed by Donald Tusk (the former prime minister of the country and president of the EPP grouping) is running on a much more liberal platform promoting to improve relations with Germany that have deteriorated, reinstate the media’s and judiciaries’ independence and allow abortions (subject to a near complete ban) and same-sex marriage.
PiS came to power in 2015 in a shock election win, this despite the thriving Polish economy, new power in Brussels and good relations with neighbouring countries that the Civic Coalition had overseen. Perhaps it was Civic Coalition’s leader and Polish prime minister Donald Tusk’s departure to Belgium’s capital for a new job and the tiredness, scandal-ridden, idealess and apathy towards the campaign trail that brought down Civic Coalition’s eight years of power, entailing yet eight more years of power, however, for the PiS party instead. Either way after nearly a decade in power Civic Coalition was out and Law and Justice was in. Fast forward to the 2019 general election we see that PiS wins a majority in the Sejm (the parliament) being a huge blow to the opposition (mainly Civic Coalition). PiS tenure has been riddled by conflict with the European Union (despite Poles favourable view towards the Union), cash-for-visa and scandals. This has given hope to the opposition, Civic Coalition, that they’ll win back power after a long pause. Donald Tusk’s re-entrance to Poland’s political scene has garnered support among the broader electorate, giving PiS a run for their money in the polls.
Considering the deteriorated relations between Poland and the European Union this election has perhaps seen the most outsider attention any Polish election ever has. Law and Justice’s hardened stance on Ukraine has moreover attracted attention. This alongside the democratic backsliding and questionable independence of the state media and judicial branch that PiS has overseen. Has made this one of the most pivotal elections of the year and is the reason many onlookers are viewing the election with suspense.
The last days of the campaign have seen Donald Tusk out and aboutspeaking to voters, polishing off the elitist metropolitan stamp that’s followed the Civics Coalition for many elections by rural voters that have overwhelmingly supported PiS and their anti-liberal, anti-west and subsidy based countryside economics. Law and Justice has tried to keep these rural voters by hardening their stance on Ukraine, with grain imports being a major issue for many countryside voters. In recent weeks Mr. Tusk’s coalition has been closing in on Law and Justice, closing in on the 43% to 26% last election to today’s 36% (PiS) to 30% (Civic Coalition) in the polls. Seemingly standing a real chance at victory in Sunday’s election, meaning that PiS might lose. Another alternative is that none of the parties manage to garner a majority in the Sejm, this would be bad news for both sides as it would mean trying to form a coalition with another party. Lewica, the main left party would be an unlikely ally of either party, however, might be convinced to vote for Mr. Tusk if the alternative is the Law and Justice candidate. Otherwise there’s a smaller rightwing party that PiS may be able to align with. Either way a clear run majority for Civic Coalition or PiS would be most favoured by both sides as long as they’re the ones with the majority.
Poland will make a decision on Sunday whether it’ll be for the more liberal, former EPP president and former prime minister Donald Tusk is yet to be seen. This election will furthermore be a statement to Law and Justice popularity, winning a third term would be unprecedented, but doing the unprecedented seems to be PiS thing. Winning a shock victory in 2015 and a majority in the Sejm, a first since the fall of communism in 1991. This election, either way it goes, will affect all of Europe which is a testimony to Poland’s growing influence and importance on the global stage.
