Ahead of the EU Elections
Next year in early June the people of the European Union will head to the polls to decide who will represent their country in Brussels. The elections take place over 3 days throughout the continent, in total 720 people are to be elected (15 more seats then in 2019). 361 seats are required for a majority. Noteworthy is that this is the first European elections without the United Kingdom being involved.
The parliamentary group the European People’s Party (EPP) won the most votes in 2019 by a reasonable margin. The EPP is currently polling 19 seats below their 2019 results, very bad considering that the total number of MEPs (Members of the European Parliament) has increased. The EPPs main opposition party the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) isn’t polling much better losing 8 seats in total, once again bad considering that the number of MEPs has gone up. Furthermore, Renew Europe, the centrist liberal group is polling badly, losing 11 MEPs if current polling holds. The Greens aren’t doing well, down 20 MEPs, the Left is holding the line keeping roughly the same amount of seats as in 2019. Since 2019 there has been a surge in support for non-inscrits (MEPs who are not affiliated to any political groupings) and new yet to be affiliated parties with the latter seeing polling 8 times larger than in 2019. The only political groups in Brussels that are doing well are the European Conservatives and Reformist (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID), both eurosceptic and clearly right-wing groups.
The shift to the right in Europe is clear whether it be the new Danish Democrats, recent ascent to influence of the Sweden Democrats, the National Rally in France or Giorgia Meloni’s historical win in Italy. Europe is moving to the right currently. Recent elections in Spain and Poland seeing far-right parties lose might have people thinking otherwise, but the fact of the matter is that the far-right is solidifying its grip on the continent, Poland still sees major influence from the far-right and Spain’s VOX isn’t going anywhere. To emphasise this shift the maps below show the largest party in each EU member state (excluding the UK) in polling at the start of 2019 to the latest available polls in 2023.
Map showing the largest party in the polls of each EU member country in 2019:
Map showing the largest party in the polls of each EU member country in 2023:
The maps depict a move to the right, notably a move from the center and to a lesser extent the left (though France makes up for those losses in pure population). Perhaps more important is how most countries have seen a change in the largest party, implying that the electorate trusts no one, a good thing for democracy, a bad thing for politicians. The strives by the electorate away from the middle are prevalent, Estonia’s Kaja Kallas, France’s Emmanuel Macron and the VVDs small lead in the Netherlands showcase an ailing liberalism on the continent. The dynasty of liberalism has seemingly disappeared or at least taken a nap in the continent once defined by this dynasty’s values. Europe’s not in the same place as it once was, we’re far from 2019, even further from 2010, whether that is a sign of progress or back sliding is your prerogative, however, if one thing is clear it’s this: times are changing and politics is going to have to change with it or face the wrath of public scrutiny.
