A Red Scotland: Labour's Dreams are Coming True
It's well over a decade since Britain had a Labour Prime Minister, 1 reason is the party's collapse in Scotland. The exceptional rise of the SNP entailed the fall of Labour. 40 seats were lost in 2015 - the retention of those seats for later elections may have helped the party gain power. Scotland has always been of particular importance for any prospects of a Labour government. The turmoil within the SNP has opened a chance for Keir Stamer to regain the once-red stronghold. Success in Scotland could guarantee the Downing Street hopeful victory. Polling by electoral calculus currently suggests that Labour are well on their way to winning Scotland.
The main reason for a potential red Scotland is a weak SNP. The tumultuous departure by Nicola Sturgeon, a less popular new leader and division within the SNP has opened the opportunity for a Labour comeback. However, the Conservatives outstanding feebleness is playing into the hands of Mr Stamer. This alongside tactical voting, the resources of the Lib Dems and Alba stealing some (not many) votes from the SNP are factors working towards a red Scotland.
Whilst this map certainly does not match Labour's past strength in the region it does mean the party would hold a true footing and be the largest party in Scotland. being the largest party once more would hold both practical and symbolic value. With the party having a back up for England that might not give enough seats for a majority alongside showing that Labour's back. Furthermore, it gives the party a launch pad for future election allowing for continued growth.
However, outside the self destruction of Labour's enemies its hard to see if voters are drifting towards the party due to its policy. In other words if the electorate are preferring Labour in the short term because of how abysmal the alternatives are viewed. If that's the case the power of a new red Scotland would be severely limited with voters easily drifting between parties instead of setting up camp. On the other hand if the electorate simply prefers Labour's policies that's great news for the party as it means they resonate with the people.
Notably the Conservatives keep their 6 Scottish seats according to electoral calculus. The Liberal Democrats expand, retaking Jo Swinson's old seat. The collapse of the SNP reflects the grip Nicola Sturgeon held on Scottish politics. The political future of Scotland remains unknown, however, currently its looking ever brighter for Labour.
