A French Upset Election

A French Upset Election
Photo of the flag of France by Latrach Med Jamil / Unsplash

The French headed to the second round of voting on July 7 after a triumph for Rassemblement National in the first round.

After a devastating defeat in the European Union's parliament election President Macron announced a snap-election. Ahead of the election the leader of Les Républicains (LR), Éric Ciotti, launched an alliance with Rassemblement National (RN), however, quickly experienced major backlash within his party and became politically isolated after refusing to back down, including locking himself inside party headquarters. Ciotti would still run, however, as an ally of the RN. In the first round on June 30 RN alongside allies led in 297 constituencies, above the 289 majority threshold in the National Assembly. Whilst the left-wing coalition Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) led in 159 seats. President Emmanuel Macron's alliance Ensemble plunged to 70 alongside Les Républicains falling to 20. Jordan Bardella, leader of RN, was set to become the next prime minister. The Macron presidency could have been undermined if Bardella secured the prime ministership. With RN leading figure Marie Le Pen, Macron's arch nemesis in presidential elections, hinting that her party would interfere with not only traditional affairs for the prime minister. Including using the military budget as a bargaining chip. To say the least Ensemble had loads to lose while RN had everything to gain, Macron was all in.

Between the rounds hundreds of candidates dropped out, the NFP and Ensemble had together secured 48% of the national vote tally, in order to unite an anti-RN voting bloc. Moreover, LR mustered about 7% of the vote share, however, its uncertain if these centre-right voters would support the NFP considering its left-wing tendencies. Though the Éric Ciotti scandal may have shown a greater willingness to vote tactically than anticipated.

By July 7 RN remained the favourite, however, as Election Night unfolded it became clear that Bardella's party was severely over estimated. An exit poll placed it in 3rd place, well behind the NFP and Ensemble. Moreover, LR was projected to retain seats otherwise destined for RN. Jean Luc-Mélanchon, leader of the NFP, stated to a rejoice full Parisian crowd that the far-right had been stopped, and that Gabriel Attal, the then incumbent Prime Minister of France representing Ensemble, would be forced to resign. The NFP secured 182 constituencies, a strong showing compared with the first round, roughly 50 more seats than NUPES the alliance's predecessor. On the other hand Ensemble experienced expected loses, losing roughly 90 seats plunging to 168 constituencies, compared with 245 last election just 2 years ago. Meanwhile the wave of RN support failed to amass headway, the party enjoyed large gains roughly similar to the NFP, winning 143 constituencies compared with 89 in 2022. Les Républicains recuperated to 46 seats, well below the 61 secured in 2022, however, well above the 20 in the first round. Otherwise Ensemble enjoyed incredibly strong support amongst French citizens abroad, whilst the NFP secured the most seats outside mainland France in departments such as Réunion and Martinique. Whilst French Guyane and New Caledonia supported local parties.

Whilst President Macron in some manner hindered Rassemblement National, meaning his gamble worked, it could hardly be seen as a raging success story. Not only did RN grow in size, the party also found new allies, namely Éric Ciotti, something unprecedented among the established parties. Furthermore, the rapid rise of the Nouveau Front Populaire created its own challenges, specifically how the new governing dynamic could look. The NFP is in no debt to Ensemble and holds near all the bargaining power as Macron would be unlikely to seek support from Marie Le Pen's party, and has everything to lose from a perceived incompetent government. However, if the political deadlock continues and voters blame the NFP Macron could seem reasonable and start regaining support. That hinges on if, and considering how Mr Macron's most recent gamble played out he might not be willing to go again. The loses by Les Républicains are largely expected, not only due to the major internal conflict created by leader, though not effectively, Èric Ciotti, as the party has struggled to regain relevancy since losing power and experiencing a major set back in the legislative election of 2017.

LR stood at slightly fewer seats than Ensemble today. In a matter of years the party has fallen into irrelevancy among most, if Ensemble does the same - only becoming a blip within French politics - remains to be seen. However, what Macron and his allies are currently doing is obviously not working, once liberal bastions in the South and North have fallen to the RN, and somehow these voters need to be brought back to Ensemble, unless the party wishes to continue in disarray.

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