A Biden Trump Rematch in 2024

After 3 years out of the White House and close to 100 criminal charges, former President Donald J. Trump is holding his own in the polls against sitting President Joe Biden. Mr Trump leads with 2% in FiveThirtyEight, however, crucially Mr Biden is losing in nearly all of the last elections swing-states (in Siena College and the New York Times recent poll), Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, with the weakest lead being in Pennsylvania where Mr Trump still beats Mr Biden by 4%. Wisconsin is the only of these states that remains loyal to Joe Biden (the aforementioned swing states were won by the sitting President in the 2020 election). Though even in Wisconsin Mr Biden needs to hold on for dear life as he leads by an insignificant 2%, something the former President could likely change if he set his mind to it (however, Mr Trump would not need Wisconsin to win the election). 

Voters raise concerns about a host of issues with the sitting President, namely his age, perceived handling of the economy, and a feeling that his policies have hurt them directly. The electorate trusts Joe Biden on issues such as abortion and democracy, however, simply prioritizes the economy and national security more, areas in which Mr Trump in the electorate’s eyes holds more trustworthiness and credibility. 

Furthermore, the Trump campaign has managed to shift many of the demographic trends that have benefited the Democrats for a long time, younger, Hispanic, black, and other minority voters have all dramatically shifted towards Mr Trump since the last election. This tears down the perception that no Republican can win other demographics than white middle-class suburban voters and is a grave danger to the Democrats who have heavily relied on black voters to win elections, for example Georgia flipping blue in 2020 would not have happened if not for the huge turnout among black communities. Michigan is another example of a state that went blue in part because of the black communities votes. 

Joe Biden’s presidential win in 2020 would have been much closer fought if Georgia and Michigan didn’t turn up in his support, with 274 electoral votes for Biden and 264 for Trump, this to be compared with the actual results of 306 for Biden and 232 for Trump. The hypothetical results would have only required a red Nevada for Mr Trump to win, a state Joe Biden only won by 34 000 votes. The wavering loyalty of these communities to the Biden campaign could be detrimental to the president’s re-election bid and could end up playing a pivotal role in 2024. Mr Biden is likely to ramp up campaigning to win back these demographics.

If Siena College and the New York Time’s polling are correct the electoral map would look as follows:

With the map above in mind, it’s obvious that the electorate isn’t happy with the Biden administration in these vital states and that Mr Biden has a long way to go until voters trust his economics and national security plans. 

However, the truth is that Mr Biden’s presidency has seen job creation 6 times higher than Mr Trump managed to make in the same period. The Biden campaign’s inability to convey this to the electorate is a detrimental failure that could cost Joe Biden the presidency. Mr Trump on the other hand should be incredibly pleased with his marketing team.

Moving closer to the election, Democrats are going to go all in on presenting Mr Biden’s economic record, likely to work and change many votes, though will it be enough?

One thing that is benefiting Mr Biden is the 4 indictments charged against Mr Trump and the fraud charges that place the image of Trump as an efficient businessman (something he has built his political career around) under review.

Another light for the Biden campaign is the Democrat’s great performance in nearly every election since 2020 with Democrats all across the nation from red-state Kentucky to liberal California seeing election results well above polling.

As we enter the election year Mr Biden has a relatively strong position being able to attack Mr Trump, alongside historical data suggesting that polls underestimate Democrats. Trump’s indictments and criminal charges are easy attacking points for Joe Biden and as the Democrats continue to try to convey the bettering economic situation more of the electorate are likely to believe them. Joe Biden certainly isn’t where he wants to be in the polls, however, he’s got a long time to turn things around and many things looking up for him.

The Demoskratos current 2024 presidential election results prediction:

The reason for our prediction of giving Joe Biden the win is that Michigan and Pennsylvania stay with him, the reasoning behind this is the new autoworker jobs found in the rust belt, Mr Biden’s visit to striking workers, Democrats’ recent success in the region (namely Ohio) and Joe Biden’s ability to appeal to rust-belt voters.