2024 Presidential Election
With the 2024 presidential election closing in alongside Mr Biden and Mr Trump solidifying their primary bases, seeing no real opposition in the polls, it is worth considering the outcome of an election between the president and former president. Current polling suggests Mr Trump is ahead of Joe Biden, however, winning the presidency does not require the popular vote rather 270 electoral college votes. So in current circumstances who would win?
Polling as of the 19th of December indicates Mr Trump holds a substantial lead, however, the polling could be incoherent due to the poll before showing Mr Biden with a 10% lead. However, Mr Trump is more often than not the most popular of the 2. The map below showcases how polling currently would place different states support.
Donald J. Trump as it stands now would become the next president of the United States of America, with relatively good margins to. Nearly all of the Biden campaigns former wins from Mr Trump in 2020 have flipped back, with the notable exception of Pennsylvania were the polling is very close anyway. The continuing success of the Trump campaign and GOP to paint Mr Biden as very economically incompetent and responsible for a lot of the ongoing crisis has certainly played into the Republicans hands. On the other hand the Biden campaign seems paralysed to act with the narrative being created by the opponent rather than the candidate, very dangerous in politics.
The map above is a clear warning sign for Democrats that their communication desperately needs to get better and that they need to focus on retaking the winnings of 2020. Mr Biden's best shot is likely Wisconsin and Michigan due to his re-industrialization efforts and historic popularity in the region, these 2 states would give Mr Biden the win boosting him 25 electors just reaching the above 270 mark. Considering Mr Biden is 4% behind in Wisconsin and 8% behind in Michigan it's clear that his campaign needs to do a lot of work, however, recently he was winning in these states. Early December ha had a 5% lead in Wisconsin and in early November he held a 1% lead in Michigan. This presents that the shift in voters is recent meaning that these people may still be open to voting for Joe Biden keeping in mind they have already once been prepared to do so.
Republicans and Donald J. Trump should be very pleased with their communication strategy, because it's working. Simply put Mr Trump needs to solidify his current base and attack Pennsylvania. He can do this by attacking Biden's record as he has been doing and painting the picture that he understands business and economics and Biden does not. Attacking Pennsylvania would stress the Biden campaign as they need it to win (currently), Trump does not, such an attack may warrant higher than necessary spending by the Democrats in the state diverting resources from the other swing states in doing so. It does not matter if you win with 90% or 51% (in the short term) you still get the same amount of electors on your side.
Mr Trump is yet to choose a VP candidate and depending on his choice it may change the dynamics of the election significantly. Nikki Haley could help solidifying the base support and expanding to moderates and independents, which would be devastating for Joe Biden. Furthermore, her strong polling is a good indicator of her high popularity in a race between 2 very unpopular candidates. Otherwise he could go for a more loyal supporter, however, that risks not attracting new voters.
To showcase Nikki Haley's support she would win Pennsylvania by 5% (in a head to head match up with Biden) a strong showing in a swing state. Furthermore, she is consistently more popular than Mr Trump having a 12% lead in Michigan compared with Mr Trump's 8%, 14% lead in Wisconsin compared with 4% and a 7% lead in Nevada compared with 3%. The other swing states see Trump having a slight advantage. Nikki Haley as a VP candidate would go a long way in getting Donald J. Trump back into the White House, however, she is running against him in the GOP primary and the question is if she would want to run with Mr Trump.
The GOP should be happy with its current numbers, however, not comfortable. Mr Biden can work his way up and will certainly try, 2024 will be a tight race no matter how you see it and at the end of the day it will come down to the swing states.
