This Week in Politics
The British Election - Change
Britons headed to the polls this week, the tumultuous Tory tenure made pundits certain Labour would win, most expected in a Tony Blair 400-seat style landslide. Whispers of an extinction-level threat to the Conservatives, with some polling showing the party well beneath 100 seats, created a tense atmosphere for a party in chaos. The Liberal Democrats prepared for a return to the forefront of British politics, as the 3rd largest party. Whilst the Scottish Nationalist Party faced major challenges on home turf. Farage's Reform was expected to make some gains.
In total Starmer's Labour Party replicated a 2001 Blair landslide with 412 seats, net change +214. Whilst Sunak's Conservatives faced oblivion at 121 seats, a net change of -251. Ed Davey's Liberal Democrats were arguably election night's largest winner, as the party jumped from just over 10 seats to a whopping 71. The best the party has ever performed. The SNP won just short of 10 seats, down 37 from 2019. Whilst Reform UK won its first seats, a total of 4 including Nigel Farage won a constituency for the first time, despite 7 prior attempts. Moreover, the Greens won more 3 seats than in 2019, in both urban and rural areas, landing at a total of 4. Sinn Féin (SF) defeated the DUP in Northern Ireland by a margin of 2 seats, SF won 7. However, smaller unionist parties UUP and TUV both secured a seat alongside an independent and neutral Alliance party. The SDLP won 2 seats, the same as in 2019.
Keir Starmer will now take up the baton of leading Britain as its Prime Minister. His cabinet will face some of the toughest starting conditions imaginable, including, however, not limited to the economy, EU foreign policy and the National Health Service (NHS).
First Round in French Election
The French headed to the ballot box last Sunday in a snap election held due to an exceptionally bad result for Renaissance. Emmanuel Macron's alliance, Ensemble!, faced a tough situation in which Marie Le Pen and Jordan Bardella of the Rassemblement National (RN) expected major gains. RN has enjoyed high polling ahead of the election and performed very well in the EU election. Noveau Front Populaire (NFP), a left-wing coalition, retained higher support than its predecessor NUPES, and challenged Renaissance from the left.
The result showcased RN and its allies leading in 293 constituencies, the NFP at 159, Ensemble at 70, and LR at 20. However, many constituencies experienced voter splitting in which Ensemble and the NFP both received roughly 20% and together would win more votes than RN, the recent mass dropping out of 3rd and 4th place candidates could help lessen voter fragmentation. However, it would require NFP voters to swallow voting for Macron's liberals and vice versa. If voters' distaste for Rassemblement National is large enough and the electorate votes tactically RN could be hindered. However, that would leave the NFP and Ensemble to form a government, an undertaking itself.
A Parisian Macron sympathiser's initial reaction to the result was immense unhappiness and anguish. She described her feelings in part with an emoji taking suicide and went on to clarify that the "common" Frenchman does not understand the danger of RN or the NFP, describing both as extremist and promising everything to everyone.
The final round on the 7th of July will determine France's future and could play a pivotal role in shaping the European Union. The French will decide not only their policy, however, also, affect surrounding countries, NATO, and overseas nations with ties to Paris. Simply it's an important election with overarching consequences.
