This Week in Politics
South African Coalition
After a devastating defeat in which the African National Congress (ANC) failed to retain an outright majority for the first time South Africa has a coalition government between the ANC and their historical rival the Democratic Alliance (DA). This government of national unity is comprised of the ANC, the largest party with 159 out of 400 seats in parliament, the DA with 87 seats, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) with 17 seats alongside many smaller political groups. Cyril Ramaphosa, the incumbent president of South Africa and leader of the ANC, has been re-elected by the coalition and is set to lead the country in the coming 5 years, this time with DA cabinet ministers and a DA deputy speaker. Notablyformer President Jacob Zuma's party uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), both breakaway parties of the ANC, were not included in the grand alliance. Mr Zuma's MK will take the DA's place as the main opposition. Moreover, Mr Zuma's tenure as president came to a head due to corruption allegations, meaning he could no longer sit as a member of parliament, leading to a power struggle in which now President Cyril Ramaphosa came out on top.
"We have been here before, we were here in 1994, when we sought to unite our country and to effect reconciliation - and we are here now." President Cyril Ramaphosa stated addressing the parliament after his appointment, drawing a link between now and a South Africa stepping out of Apartheid.
The grand coalition is unprecedented, since the first democratic election in 1994, in which Nelson Mandela became the nation's president, the ANC has maintained an outright majority. This election cycle is set to provide many challenges for this grand coalition; including rampant corruption, rolling blackouts, and economic struggle. These reasons are contributing factors to why the ANC lost power in the first place, and a failure to address these issues could result in the MK and EFF gaining ground. However, many South Africans are currently viewing the coalition optimistically and think it's the correct move.
“Today is a historic day for our country, and I think it is the start of a new chapter.” - John Steenhuisen speaking in Cape Town about the coalition.
Biden Overtakes Trump in National Polling
President Joe Biden has overtaken former President Donald Trump in national polling, alongside swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin whilst narrowing the gap in all other swing states. The Biden Campaign is now on a trajectory toward victory and is the closest to winning re-election it has been this year. If the Democrats' momentum can continue into Election Day Joe Biden can expect a 2nd term, however, the election is still tight and Trump can still win. However, the shift toward Joe Biden should worry Republican strategists who were hoping to mop the floor in November.
British General Election Polling
It's no secret that the British Conservative Party led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing a multitude of electoral challenges, however, polling suggests the party is imploding. The New Statesman predicts the Tories falling from a high of 365 seats won at the least election to barely scraping over 100 today. Sunak's party is staring down the barrel with a whopping 101 seats, a net loss of 271. Meanwhile, the opposition led by Sir Keir Stamer's Labour Party is joylessly excited about being predicted to win a landslide majority larger than any previous governments since pre-ww2. An even larger majority than Tony Blair's 1997, any of Margaret Thacther's election results, Winston Churchill's Conservatives, or Clement Attlee's victory after World War 2.
Moreover, the Liberal Democrats, which faced worse oblivion than the Tories currently are facing in 2015, are set to make a comeback as Britain's 3rd largest party, a mere 40 seats behind the Conservatives. The Lib Dems are predicted 63 MPs. The SNP in Scotland weakened by tumult are struggling, predicted 22 seats a net loss of 26. Whilst Nigel Farage's Reform UK is set to win a similar percentage of the popular vote as the Tories, however, only 4 seats. However, Reform UK entering the House of Commons directly through election rather than defection would be catastrophic for the Conservatives as they would face a right-wing challenger alongside Labour and the Lib Dems. The Greens on the other hand are set to keep their single seat. However, have some opportunities to expand their seat share, internal Green Party polling states they are ahead in 2 rural Tory seats and have a shot at winning a central Bristol constituency, adeptly named Bristol Central.
Smaller parties in the current collapse of the Conservatives have the potential to either gain seats or enter parliament. The return of the Lib Dems as a force to be reckoned with could set the party up for yet another coalition government in the future, this time with the knowledge of what not to do. Either way, this election favours the Labour Party, and the question seems to be how much they will win, rather, than if they will win at all.
