The Shift: Trump's Return
With President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump set for a 2024 rematch we've looked at polls, past presidential election results from 1980 and onwards alongside other elections such as primaries, senatorial and house elections to predict the result.
Since last month former President Donald J Trump has been subject to continuing trials, however, has remained steady in the polls. The Republican presidential nominee has even managed to make gains in key swing-states. Political party machinery has been put in motion as both the Democrats and the GOP have mustered their nominees, former President Trump and incumbent President Biden. As November nears campaigning will ramp up, though both candidates have for a significant period already campaigned. Currently the sides are fighting over independents and Democrats are working to flip Nikki Haley, dropped out GOP presidential nominee contender, voters. The economy is a prevalent issue amongst the electorate, 30% citing it as the nation's most important problem, and the success of each campaign of portraying their narrative regarding the economy will be vital. In other words whether the American public has a positive or negative view of the economy will be integral to both candidates. Joe Biden wanting a positive outlook and Donald Trump the opposite. According to Gallup's Economic Confidence Index the current view is solidly negative, -20. Only twice has the outlook be positive during Biden's tenure both at the start of his presidency. However, perception has started shifting significantly in recent months and depending on the Biden campaign's strategy and raw economic data public outlook could be changed come election day.
The map below takes these factors into account - historical results, importance of issues, and more. The culmination of these factors seemingly result in a sweeping victory for Mr Trump in this prediction. With him winning back all lost states in 2020, except Michigan, and even gaining solid blue Nevada as it stands now. The clear polling advantage the Trump Campaign boosts in all the swing-states is worrying for Democrats - especially as the election day nears.
Former President Trump according to this prediction, based on current circumstances, would win with a reasonable margin. However, the loss of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would hand the election to Mr Biden showcasing the closeness of this election. Last prediction both states were classified as blue, however, since then an uptick in Trump's support hands him the current predicted win. Whilst Trump is ahead of Biden in all swing-states - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - the president has in comparison with the start of the year managed to consolidate more support. Though Biden's unpopularity continues to weigh him down alongside his age. Both candidates have opportunities to make gains in the coming month, however, formers President Trump is beginning from a better start point.
Arizona and Georgia, both blue states in 2020, continue to support Trump heavily in the polls. Both states have historically supported the GOP, and 2020 seems to have been an exception rather than a new order. A relatively weak red wave in the 2022 mid-terms House elections showcases slight movement toward the Republicans, enough to flip the state considering the margin President Biden won by in 2020. However, both states have 2 Democratic senators, winning against the GOP in 2022, perhaps reflecting Democratic strength in state-wide elections. The historical tendency and polling are the main reasons behind the defections to Donald J Trump. However, in senatorial elections, state-wide, Democrats have prevailed showcasing the party's significance in the states, Biden could win Arizona and Georgia, though that would require a lot of resources and campaigning.
Michigan's primary result, in February, suggests much stronger support for Mr Biden than Mr Trump. The GOP was significantly more divided with Nikki Haley winning more than a quarter of the votes, outperforming expectations. The protest vote against Mr Biden did garner support, however, not enough to pose a major threat. The uncommitted Democrats are unlikely to switch to Mr Trump due to his foreign policy as well. Whilst the Haley voters are much more expected to bid adieu to the Republicans. Whilst the Republican primary was a while ago the large minority supporting Nikki Haley hints at a bigger dissatisfaction with the GOP presidential candidate. Furthermore, the Democrats gained House seats in 2022 and both senators are Democrats alongside the popular governor. Moreover, the state House is currently equally divided among the parties whilst the state Senate has an overwhelming Democratic majority. Considering state Senate elections have larger districts it may be more representative of Michigan as a whole alongside the federal Senate elections and Governor election.
Pennsylvania has seen an increase in support for Mr Trump since last month which is the main factor for the state going red. Whilst Democrats did make gains in the 2022 mid-term election and the state does have a blue record polling places the state in Trump's hands. Polling is not always reliable, however, the advantage Trump has held for a longer period and the slight widening of support differences suggest the state has larger Republican support than anticipated. Wisconsin follows much of the same reasoning, though, Republicans did make gains in 2022.
Nevada has been moving toward Trump in the polls and despite its weighty Democratic history as it stands now, they seem to be favouring the former president more. Most federal elections are won by Democrats, whilst the governorship flipped to the GOP in 2022. The main reason for changing, despite being the only blue swing-state in 2016 out of the bunch, is polling. The polling has been drifting in the Trump campaign's favour for a long time and the margins now suggest that it would become a red state, even if by a small tally.
This is still anyones race and things could easily shift by November. However, as it stands now former President Trump enjoys an edge over President Biden. The Biden Campaign should focus its efforts on winning the Northern swing-states, they have closer margins. Whilst Trump should attempt to solidify his support amongst the states.
