From Triumph to Turmoil: The Conservatives Lost Britain

After 14 years in power the Tory rule of Great Britain came to an abrupt bitter end this Thursday. After years of political turmoil with 3 Prime Ministers serving within 50 days of each other, the middle one being outlasted by a lettuce. Moreover, infighting between factions, fragmentation, scandals, public service and an array of other factors played into the downfall of a party that won a clear majority just 5 years prior. For triumph to turmoil this is no longer the Conservative's Britain.

In late May a rain-soaked prime minister announced the Election Date, the 4th of July, much earlier than expected. New prognosis suggested that recovery would not be as swift as the Tories would have hoped, the difference between May and January seemed to be minor. Hence, Rishi Sunak prayed that the recent betterment in terms of inflation and minor economic growth may aloud disillusioned voters back to the Conservative Party. Polling had long placed Labour, under the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer, at double the size of the Tories, and things were only getting worse.

The Labour Party threatened a red-wave in the North whilst the Liberal Democrats challenged in the West Country. The Tories were on home turf defending core constituencies that should not have been in play. Moreover, the rising Reform UK out flanked the Conservatives from the right. The party not only faced attacks from the left, however, moreover, now from the right. The return of Nigel Farage as leader for Reform UK gave the outsider party a jump in the polls, at the expense of Sunak's party.

Facing an extinction level threat the Tories simply hoped to cut their loses. Sir Starmer in Downing Street Nr. 10 after the general election was a given, his majority or the size of his opposition was not. The narrative shifted from voting for the Tories for their continued governance to vote for the Conservatives to avoid a Labour super majority. However, years of distrust and lack of confidence in a government on borrowed time left voters with a seemingly clear choice. Vote them out, no matter if that means lending a helping hand to Labour or the Lib Dems, or even the Greens. The electorate so displeased with the makeup of power decided to vote tactically, as seen in the mind bogglingly large majorities overturned in by-elections this election cycle.

Constituency after constituency turned red on Election Night, as heavy Tory names like Penny Mordaunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg and former Prime Minister Liz Truss lost their seats, showing a changed Britain. Keir Stamer could declare victory swiftly, so too could Mr Sunak concede defeat.

In a huge swing the Labour Party gained an astounding 209 seats, winning in a Tony Blair style landslide with 411 MPs, in total more than doubling the party's vote share. Retaking the Red Wall and seeping into the Midlands and the South, creating wounds of red in a once Tory blue map. Meanwhile the Conservatives lost 244 constituencies, down at 121 from a 2019 high of 365. At the same time the Liberal Democrats regained relevancy as the party grew by over 600% in seat share, winning 72, up 61 in comparison to 11 in 2019. The Lib Dems won in the West Country and around London, former heartland territory for the party. Nigel Farage's Reform UK won an insignificant 5 MPs, though, much more relevant was the major vote share the party attained. Winning 14.3% of the total national vote, making the party 3rd largest. Moreover, Reform UK managed to win seats in the House of Commons for the first time in its history, a landmark for a political party aiming to overthrow the Tories as the main opposition.

Smaller and regional parties had varying performances. The Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) stumbled a huge defeat, losing 39 out of the prior held 48 constituencies. The SNP nose dived to less than 10 seats, winning 9 in total, none in Glasgow or Edinburgh former heartlands. Sinn Féin (SF) in Northern Ireland became the largest regional party, beating the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) by a margin of 2 seats. The success of SF largely depended on the downfall of the DUP. However, other unionist parties, namely the UUP and TUV, picked up the slack and secured those 2 constituencies bringing the unionist v. nationalist margin back to zero. Though the SDLP, a different nationalist party, itself won 2 seats meaning the cause for Irish re-unification has a majority out of Northern Irish seats. Alliance, with no stance on unification or remaining secured 1 MP. Whilst it's old seat, North Down, was lost to an independent. Alex Easton, self described independent unionist will serve as Northern Ireland's only independent MP in parliament. Plaid Cyrmru in Wales doubled it seat share, from 2 to 4, winning mostly in rural Western Wales. The Green Party gained 3 seats, landing at a total of 4. Furthermore, winning in both urban and rural areas reflecting the party's possible electability.

Often elections are about policy and politics. However, this British election campaign seemed plagued by the Tories inability to move past its scandalous ridden tenure. The party simply faced an impossible situation; the political turmoil of Boris Johnson's exit, followed by a PM with a shorter time in office than a lettuce on live stream, subsequently replaced by an unelected, unpopular and uncharismatic politician. The numbers speak for themselves. In such circumstances the Tory goal was never to win, but instead not die out. Former Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, gave remarks on the exit poll stating that the Tories had actually done well in comparison with what the party was up against and expected to do.

"They've pulled a few dozen back from where they thought they were. " - Ruth Davidson speaking on Sky News about the exit poll.

In 1997 the Labour leader Tony Blair won in the greatest landslide since the end of World War 2, the Tories dipped to a low of 165, the next election the party gained an insignificant single seat, the one after that a more substantial 33 seats and by the 3rd time the party gained about 100 seats. It may take a few election cycles, however, most probably the Tory Party will return some to power eventually. The real question is how long and how much work it will take. The next Conservative leader will have a monumental task of rebuilding an ailing party. However, this time with the threat of another right-wing party ready to snatch votes, led by a famed figure: Nigel Farage.

Labour is back; Keir Starmer is the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. If he can deliver the change he spoke about on the campaign trail remains to be seen. However, clear as day light is the hope among Britons that he will be different and that things will became better. The task of rebuilding trust began with his cabinet, next election will show if he did.